The big winner tonight for the Republicans? [View all]
Jeb Bush.
The fundamental difference in the sociology of the two parties is that the Democrats consist of various groups that have high overlapping areas of interests: minorities, anti-war, woman's rights, economic justice, sexual orientation civil rights. There really is no antagonism between the group and virtually every Democrat sees themselves as being a part of several groups.
Republicans are a collection of fundamentally antagonistic groups: defense hawks, corporate establishment, evangelical, pro life, tea bag, racist, John Birch, and they really don't like each other. The fact that it was so close in VA will give the TeaParty hope, they just need to 'tweak' their message, not overhaul it.
They are now polarized into the Cruz vs Christie factions. Both will be able to mobilize money and people. There is no real room for compromise and they will battle it to the end.
The reality is that Republicans must take Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia to get close to the electoral college. Cruz can't do it. Christie can't even deliver NJ. The Republican who has the best chance with those states will be Jeb Bush.
Over the next 3 years Christie and Cruz will be involved in inter party and partisan fights that will leave them both bloodied and diminished. Jeb Bush can remain quiet on the sidelines and float above it all and in 2015 enter the primaries a fresh face that unifies a bloodied party and reaches out to Hispanics.
Ironically we just moved closer to a Bush/Clinton race in 2016.
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