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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » Wake Up, Democrats, and S... » Reply #19

Response to DFW (Reply #17)

Sat Oct 4, 2014, 01:06 PM

19. There's a problem with that

Charlie Cook isn't a pollster. He's a political analyst who uses the same polls we see (as well as some inside connections to some party pollsters) to evaluate the races.

And the reason that he has the most tossups where others show strong leanings toward or party or the other... is that he has a longstanding policy of not placing an incumbent any worse than "tossup" until just before the election unless there's an indictment involved (or similar handicap). So it doesn't matter, for instance, that Mark Pryor is fairly regularly polling in the low 40s (even cracking into the high 30s in the most recent PPP poll)... or that incumbents with those kinds of numbers are is serious trouble. He's going to continue calling that race a toss up. If that changes, we'll know that we're in real trouble... because the only time I can remember that happening was 2010.

I also know Angus King slightly, and I am fairly confident he will continue to caucus with us.

I'm sure that he'll continue to vote with us on issues of importance, but he represents his constituents. If Republicans take the senate with a clear majority (meaning, for instance, that we aren't waiting on a LA runoff to decide things), his constituents could be better served by someone in the majority caucus.

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tgards79 Oct 2014 OP
Scuba Oct 2014 #1
vi5 Oct 2014 #2
on point Oct 2014 #6
Vots Oct 2014 #3
brooklynite Oct 2014 #4
FBaggins Oct 2014 #5
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sheshe2 Oct 2014 #26
upaloopa Oct 2014 #27
trueblue2007 Oct 2014 #9
bigdarryl Oct 2014 #7
FBaggins Oct 2014 #8
tgards79 Oct 2014 #11
DFW Oct 2014 #17
LineLineLineLineNew Reply There's a problem with that
FBaggins Oct 2014 #19
blkmusclmachine Oct 2014 #10
RBInMaine Oct 2014 #12
4dsc Oct 2014 #16
Corey_Baker08 Oct 2014 #14
tgards79 Oct 2014 #22
Corey_Baker08 Oct 2014 #23
DFW Oct 2014 #18
tgards79 Oct 2014 #25
oldandhappy Oct 2014 #24
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