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Response to maindawg (Reply #4)

Sat Apr 25, 2015, 12:06 PM

11. that's rather silly

even in a best case scenario - let's say the Democrat wins by 5% (although Sebelius probably won by more, she wasn't running against a Brownback either). They only need to flip 3% of the vote to erase that 5% win 3% less for the Democrat plus 3% more for the Republican = a 1% win for the Republican. Let's say they want to be safe and flip 5% of the vote. They can do that just as easily in a small precinct as a large one - it's only 5%

Take a really small precinct like LV1FG or even 1FF. The first went 12 and 13 (in the state legislature, but then also 14-1-0-12 for Congress) The second went 10-23 (and also 11-0-1-21). 33 total votes in the second precinct and 25 total votes in the first. Flipping 5% of the vote you are changing 1 or 2 votes. Is there really a huge difference between 13-12 and 12-13? or between 12 and 21 and 10 and 23?

Well, oddly enough in this case, in 2008, the Democrat won the legislative race by 4183 to 2817. She out polled the Democratic candidate for Congress who finished 3557-158-191-3132 probably mostly by being anti-choice and pro-gun.

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EV_Ares Apr 2015 OP
workinclasszero Apr 2015 #1
world wide wally Apr 2015 #2
maindawg Apr 2015 #4
world wide wally Apr 2015 #6
LineLineLineNew Reply that's rather silly
hfojvt Apr 2015 #11
BillZBubb Apr 2015 #3
stillwaiting Apr 2015 #5
world wide wally Apr 2015 #7
jwirr Apr 2015 #8
SheilaT Apr 2015 #9
hfojvt Apr 2015 #12
SheilaT Apr 2015 #18
Proud Liberal Dem Apr 2015 #10
hfojvt Apr 2015 #13
EV_Ares Apr 2015 #14
hfojvt Apr 2015 #19
EV_Ares Apr 2015 #20
UCmeNdc Apr 2015 #15
blkmusclmachine Apr 2015 #16
blkmusclmachine Apr 2015 #17
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