2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: I would like to take this time to congratulate the media, republicans and the anti-Clinton crowd... [View all]jeff47
(26,549 posts)North Carolina. Went for Obama in 2008, Went for Romney in 2012.
It's very much an urban/rural divide state. Rural voters are extremely Republican and always turn out, but there are less of them. Urban voters are Democratic, and there are more of them, yet they turn out less reliably.
Republicans here are already frothing at the mouth over voting against Clinton. They are nearly orgasmic to vote against her. They are excited to vote for a not-very-intelligent hunk of granite smeared with shit if it means voting against Clinton. They will vote for a Republican who promises to execute everyone in the state in order to vote against Clinton. Yes, they really are that excited by hatred of Clinton.
Democrats, on the other hand, are not really excited about Clinton. She's far too centrist to excite the people behind "Moral Mondays". She will not be able to inspire large urban turnout.
As a result, a Bush/Walker vs. Clinton election means NC votes for Bush/Walker. Massive Republican turnout, and "meh" Democratic turnout.
Someone other than Clinton would still be opposed by Republicans, but not with the same intensity. The Republicans spent the last 30 years turning Clinton into Satan incarnate among their faithful. Meanwhile, Sanders or O'Malley have a chance to tap into the "Moral Mondays" voters that Clinton can not.
Another Democrat is by no means a guaranteed win in NC. Especially because there are easier states to win, so we are not likely to see active campaigning by any Democratic candidate in NC. But Clinton is a guaranteed loss.