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DemocratSinceBirth

(99,704 posts)
72. Yes, but you are free to disagree...
Tue Aug 4, 2015, 08:10 PM
Aug 2015
It’s a matter of judgement style, first expressed by the ancient Greek warrior poet Archilochus: “The fox knows many things; the hedgehog one great thing.” The idea was later expanded by essayist Isaiah Berlin. In Tetlock’s interpretation, Hedgehogs have one grand theory (Marxist, Libertarian, whatever) which they are happy to extend into many domains, relishing its parsimony, and expressing their views with great confidence. Foxes, on the other hand are skeptical about grand theories, diffident in their forecasts, and ready to adjust their ideas based on actual events.

The aggregate success rate of Foxes is significantly greater, Tetlock found, especially in short-term forecasts. And Hedgehogs routinely fare worse than Foxes, especially in long-term forecasts. They even fare worse than normal attention-paying dilletantes — apparently blinded by their extensive expertise and beautiful theory. Furthermore, Foxes win not only in the accuracy of their predictions but also the accuracy of the likelihood they assign to their predictions— in this they are closer to the admirable discipline of weather forecasters.

http://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jan/26/why-foxes-are-better-forecasters-than-hedgehogs/



Easy sparky.... She'll be fine. :). nt Adrahil Aug 2015 #1
yes it is olddots Aug 2015 #2
Hillary has done this all on her own. Vinca Aug 2015 #3
I'm voting my heart AND my head. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Aug 2015 #5
How do you come to that conclusion ... Or heart or your head? n/t. 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2015 #9
Head. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Aug 2015 #10
I agree with the first part ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2015 #12
I don't think it'll be enough, if it's Bush. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Aug 2015 #13
But we keep told the left doesn't do that! ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2015 #15
When I say 'on the left' (in this instance) I mean Democrats and left leaning independents. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Aug 2015 #16
Well, let's use one purple state as an example. jeff47 Aug 2015 #42
The general election isn't just about Democrats. Comrade Grumpy Aug 2015 #53
Per the early polling ... yes. n/t 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2015 #54
Let's hope so. She's the probable nominee for the party. Comrade Grumpy Aug 2015 #58
The vast majority of republicans have been waiting nearly 25 years to pull the lever against Clinton frylock Aug 2015 #60
"You're "? ... Don't you mean, "we're"? 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2015 #61
We're, you're, they're... frylock Aug 2015 #62
It is a matter of perspective. n/t 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2015 #64
I'm not a Democrat and have made no effort to hide that. frylock Aug 2015 #65
Okay. it's difficult to keep up. n/t 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2015 #66
Multa novit vulpes, verum echinus unum magnum. DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 #17
Okay artislife Aug 2015 #69
The hedgehog knows one thing. The fox knows many things. DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 #70
So when you post this artislife Aug 2015 #71
Yes, but you are free to disagree... DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 #72
Thank you artislife Aug 2015 #73
I am reading Nate Sliver's 'The Signal And The Noise.' DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 #74
He certainly is interesting artislife Aug 2015 #76
Sanders will be devoured in the generals. Adrahil Aug 2015 #18
Is'n that exactly why the left of the party is always told to fall in line behind the centrists? Erich Bloodaxe BSN Aug 2015 #19
I think Democrats will vote for Sanders... Adrahil Aug 2015 #23
It is independents that have been fed up with BOTH parties, and he is an INDEPENDENT! cascadiance Aug 2015 #49
Not many people are independent because... Adrahil Aug 2015 #50
Based on WHAT! Many here on DU have said they've left the Democratic Party... cascadiance Aug 2015 #51
Excellent point. blackspade Aug 2015 #24
Of course not. jeff47 Aug 2015 #43
The millenials would SURGE for the Democrats in the general with Bernie as the nominee cascadiance Aug 2015 #44
Based on what? Adrahil Aug 2015 #48
There are many here documenting how millenials are starting to embrace Sanders cascadiance Aug 2015 #52
You ARE quick on the uptake ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2015 #63
BTW, I'll revisit my prediction if one of the total clowns actually wins the Republican primary. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Aug 2015 #11
well retrowire Aug 2015 #4
Sooooo.... JackInGreen Aug 2015 #6
yeah, it's everybody's fault but hers.nt m-lekktor Aug 2015 #7
You're welcome Armstead Aug 2015 #8
Well thank you - Wait until I tell my close personal friend Karl Rove el_bryanto Aug 2015 #14
She's been running since the day after the 2008 election and she's suffering from overexposure tularetom Aug 2015 #20
Who are the 'anti-Clinton' crowd? blackspade Aug 2015 #21
People who don't worship her whatchamacallit Aug 2015 #31
Yep. And anyone who criticizes her for any reason whatsoever. beam me up scottie Aug 2015 #75
Plan B! B for Bernie! I agree. jomin41 Aug 2015 #22
Just as planned lobodons Aug 2015 #25
Mrs. Clinton is not owed the Presidency Recursion Aug 2015 #26
I do not hear this from Hillalry supporters, it comes from those who do not support her. Why is Thinkingabout Aug 2015 #30
That's basically in my social circle, which is very pro-Clinton Recursion Aug 2015 #36
Perhaps they are ardent Hillary supporters, I am supporting Hillary, never have thought she should Thinkingabout Aug 2015 #39
She may not be owed the presidency but she should at least be treated fairly. Laser102 Aug 2015 #27
Exactly! liberal N proud Aug 2015 #33
In your congradulations to the ability of knocking down Hillary's favorability rating, how has this Thinkingabout Aug 2015 #28
Heh heh... quickesst Aug 2015 #29
Passive aggressive behavior is adorable. FlatBaroque Aug 2015 #38
Nah... quickesst Aug 2015 #59
More and more Democrats are beginning to realize that Third-Way or so-called "Centrist" Democrats Cal33 Aug 2015 #32
I would be interested Proud Liberal Dem Aug 2015 #68
Are you referring to Pres. Obama as a "moderate/left-of-center" Democratic President? He, himself, Cal33 Aug 2015 #77
I'm not worried... brooklynite Aug 2015 #34
This is what everyone is missing about that article liberal N proud Aug 2015 #35
Yeah, but nearly half have never heard of Sanders. Fawke Em Aug 2015 #46
Plenty of time for the debates - just because the clowns are putting on a circus so early liberal N proud Aug 2015 #47
I must agree her tactics are looking very good this year Recursion Aug 2015 #37
Easy solution Trajan Aug 2015 #40
I guess being a Wall Street funded, finger-in-the-wind "centrist" has its downsides. Romulox Aug 2015 #41
But, but ...she's a fighter artislife Aug 2015 #45
This message was self-deleted by its author Corruption Inc Aug 2015 #55
Hillary knew this was coming, and... Mike Nelson Aug 2015 #56
doesn't this show those running against her are weak also JI7 Aug 2015 #57
and beating ALL Republicans ericson00 Aug 2015 #67
Despite her low favorability numbers, Clinton remains the clear frontrunner among the current field misterhighwasted Aug 2015 #78
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