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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: I would like to take this time to congratulate the media, republicans and the anti-Clinton crowd... [View all]DemocratSinceBirth
(99,704 posts)72. Yes, but you are free to disagree...
Its a matter of judgement style, first expressed by the ancient Greek warrior poet Archilochus: The fox knows many things; the hedgehog one great thing. The idea was later expanded by essayist Isaiah Berlin. In Tetlocks interpretation, Hedgehogs have one grand theory (Marxist, Libertarian, whatever) which they are happy to extend into many domains, relishing its parsimony, and expressing their views with great confidence. Foxes, on the other hand are skeptical about grand theories, diffident in their forecasts, and ready to adjust their ideas based on actual events.
The aggregate success rate of Foxes is significantly greater, Tetlock found, especially in short-term forecasts. And Hedgehogs routinely fare worse than Foxes, especially in long-term forecasts. They even fare worse than normal attention-paying dilletantes apparently blinded by their extensive expertise and beautiful theory. Furthermore, Foxes win not only in the accuracy of their predictions but also the accuracy of the likelihood they assign to their predictions in this they are closer to the admirable discipline of weather forecasters.
http://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jan/26/why-foxes-are-better-forecasters-than-hedgehogs/
The aggregate success rate of Foxes is significantly greater, Tetlock found, especially in short-term forecasts. And Hedgehogs routinely fare worse than Foxes, especially in long-term forecasts. They even fare worse than normal attention-paying dilletantes apparently blinded by their extensive expertise and beautiful theory. Furthermore, Foxes win not only in the accuracy of their predictions but also the accuracy of the likelihood they assign to their predictions in this they are closer to the admirable discipline of weather forecasters.
http://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jan/26/why-foxes-are-better-forecasters-than-hedgehogs/
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I would like to take this time to congratulate the media, republicans and the anti-Clinton crowd... [View all]
liberal N proud
Aug 2015
OP
When I say 'on the left' (in this instance) I mean Democrats and left leaning independents.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
Aug 2015
#16
The vast majority of republicans have been waiting nearly 25 years to pull the lever against Clinton
frylock
Aug 2015
#60
Is'n that exactly why the left of the party is always told to fall in line behind the centrists?
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
Aug 2015
#19
It is independents that have been fed up with BOTH parties, and he is an INDEPENDENT!
cascadiance
Aug 2015
#49
Based on WHAT! Many here on DU have said they've left the Democratic Party...
cascadiance
Aug 2015
#51
The millenials would SURGE for the Democrats in the general with Bernie as the nominee
cascadiance
Aug 2015
#44
There are many here documenting how millenials are starting to embrace Sanders
cascadiance
Aug 2015
#52
BTW, I'll revisit my prediction if one of the total clowns actually wins the Republican primary.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
Aug 2015
#11
She's been running since the day after the 2008 election and she's suffering from overexposure
tularetom
Aug 2015
#20
I do not hear this from Hillalry supporters, it comes from those who do not support her. Why is
Thinkingabout
Aug 2015
#30
Perhaps they are ardent Hillary supporters, I am supporting Hillary, never have thought she should
Thinkingabout
Aug 2015
#39
In your congradulations to the ability of knocking down Hillary's favorability rating, how has this
Thinkingabout
Aug 2015
#28
More and more Democrats are beginning to realize that Third-Way or so-called "Centrist" Democrats
Cal33
Aug 2015
#32
Are you referring to Pres. Obama as a "moderate/left-of-center" Democratic President? He, himself,
Cal33
Aug 2015
#77
Plenty of time for the debates - just because the clowns are putting on a circus so early
liberal N proud
Aug 2015
#47
I guess being a Wall Street funded, finger-in-the-wind "centrist" has its downsides.
Romulox
Aug 2015
#41
Despite her low favorability numbers, Clinton remains the clear frontrunner among the current field
misterhighwasted
Aug 2015
#78