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2016 Postmortem

Proud Liberal Dem

(24,396 posts)

22. He could theoretically lose Virginia, Ohio AND Florida

Reply to Chipper Chat (Reply #7)

Mon Jul 23, 2012, 11:44 AM

Jul 2012

and STILL win, albeit by a "too close for comfort" margin. 270towin.com is a really good site to play around with. The truth of the matter is that President Obama has many paths to 270. Romney has to rely on the wind REALLY being at his back in order to win in November. Good turnout by Dems on Election Day 2012 should be able to deliver a second term for President Obama. In my estimation, something catastrophic would have to happen to President Obama or Mitt would have to gain some serious "Mitt-mentum" to win in November. The bigger problem that I see is what kind of House and Senate we might end up with in November and whether or not President Obama and Democrats in Congress will spend more time playing offense or defense.

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My latest electoral college numbers [View all] center rising Jul 2012 OP

I think North Carolina should be a tossup. It has been very close for a long time. yellowcanine Jul 2012 #1

It went to Obama in 2008. Lex Jul 2012 #2

NC was tough, but in the end, center rising Jul 2012 #3

Missouri just might go Blue this year........ TheDebbieDee Jul 2012 #4

Isn't the GOP close against the Democratic Senator there? I've seen discouraging reports of MO. freshwest Jul 2012 #5

The problem with the Democratic Senator here, McCaskill, is that she can't make up TheDebbieDee Jul 2012 #11

maybe she doesn't excite progressive Democrats... brooklynite Jul 2012 #23

Excuse me, but there are progressive Dems here in Missouri and we want to bring Missouri TheDebbieDee Jul 2012 #27

I agree Robbins Jul 2012 #28

I sure hope you have that 303 count firm. Thanks for the information. freshwest Jul 2012 #6

From all the polling I've seen center rising Jul 2012 #8

The good news about your poll is that Chipper Chat Jul 2012 #7

Yeah, Obama definitely has some wiggle room here. center rising Jul 2012 #9

Obama could lose Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and Virginia and still win demwing Jul 2012 #18

He could theoretically lose Virginia, Ohio AND Florida Proud Liberal Dem Jul 2012 #22

Too soon to do serious calculations SoutherDem Jul 2012 #10

I think it is valuable to track trends...nt Wounded Bear Jul 2012 #25

Well… CobaltBlue Jul 2012 #12

Almost in complete agreement with the RealClearPolitics no-swing states Electoral College map. TexasTowelie Jul 2012 #13

oops... just posted the same thing.. DCBob Jul 2012 #16

excellent ges6262fese Jul 2012 #14

I think that is almost exactly the RCP no toss-up map DCBob Jul 2012 #15

Why only Florida? demwing Jul 2012 #17

That's pretty much how Nate Silver's forecast has things right now. Daniel537 Jul 2012 #19

I've been calling 332-333 to 205-206 for about a year now. mikekohr Jul 2012 #20

i believe indiana and missouri will flip. i believe the only big state Obama will not carry Suji to Seoul Jul 2012 #21

No Way IN Goes for Obama n/t stuckinodi Jul 2012 #26

The Votemaster (electoral-vote.com) has Obama at 332 Jim Lane Jul 2012 #24

My take Robbins Jul 2012 #29