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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » Do you believe in a 50-St... » Reply #7

Response to ellisonz (Original post)

Sat Jan 28, 2012, 08:47 AM

7. Yes, especially this year.

The President's own reelection has been in the bag for over a year now, by keeping a vote on a tax-cut extension out of reach until 2013. His approval rating will continue to climb all year, particularly after his disgusting opponent is finally selected. I'm sticking with my prediction of 409 electoral votes. (Edit: Yes, I have downgraded it from "500-plus," though I still hope to see that.)

What the President needs, so that he can get something done in his second term, is a Democratic House and a filibuster-proof supermajority in the Senate.

Screwing down the Senate ain't gonna happen this time. Democrats did so well in 2006 that this year's Senate reelection class is 23 D to only 10 R, and about half of those Rs are pretty solid, all of them with infinite money to spend. The President seems to be taking a long-view approach toward securing a supermajority for the last two years of his second term. Five pickups in each of the next two elections could do it.

By securing his own reelection twenty-two months in advance, the President's campaign will be able to focus on using his coattails to support Democratic candidates for Congress. He's angling to make this a mandate election on income inequality--in part, I think, to build a base of support so far beyond the margin of error that it can't be stolen--and since it has every chance of motivating a huge base of overwhelming support, it has an excellent chance of flipping the House. Especially if the President runs a 50-state strategy--not for himself, but to run his opposition in Congress out of town.

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Arrow 45 replies Author Time Post
ellisonz Jan 2012 OP
dimbear Jan 2012 #1
DCKit Jan 2012 #2
ellisonz Jan 2012 #11
limpyhobbler Jan 2012 #3
DCBob Jan 2012 #4
Cosmocat Jan 2012 #5
ellisonz Jan 2012 #13
Cosmocat Jan 2012 #20
Liberal_Stalwart71 Jan 2012 #24
JNelson6563 Feb 2012 #34
ellisonz Feb 2012 #35
CanonRay Jan 2012 #6
ellisonz Jan 2012 #14
CanonRay Jan 2012 #17
LineReply Yes, especially this year.
sofa king Jan 2012 #7
Proud Liberal Dem Jan 2012 #9
ellisonz Jan 2012 #12
Liberal_Stalwart71 Jan 2012 #25
ellisonz Jan 2012 #26
3waygeek Feb 2012 #41
ellisonz Feb 2012 #43
3waygeek Feb 2012 #44
ellisonz Feb 2012 #45
Proud Liberal Dem Jan 2012 #8
ellisonz Jan 2012 #15
denem Jan 2012 #10
ellisonz Jan 2012 #16
Drunken Irishman Jan 2012 #18
ellisonz Jan 2012 #19
davidpdx Feb 2012 #38
renie408 Jan 2012 #21
ellisonz Jan 2012 #22
Liberal_Stalwart71 Jan 2012 #23
tallahasseedem Jan 2012 #27
libodem Jan 2012 #28
ellisonz Jan 2012 #29
libodem Jan 2012 #31
quaker bill Jan 2012 #30
bemildred Feb 2012 #32
rocktivity Feb 2012 #33
ellisonz Feb 2012 #36
joshcryer Feb 2012 #37
UCmeNdc Feb 2012 #39
Alexander Feb 2012 #40
Generic Brad Feb 2012 #42
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