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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » Do you believe in a 50-St... » Reply #18

Response to ellisonz (Original post)

Sat Jan 28, 2012, 05:51 PM

18. A 50-state strategy is a misnomer...

Because Obama didn't use a 50-state strategy in 2008. The article even suggests this, as Obama scaled back major operations in September '08. He also didn't campaign or have much organization (outside the traditional stuff you see for any presidential candidate) in states like Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma and other conservative states.

Obama's strategy in '12 is not going to be much different than '08. He, like Clinton, will be able to put a few Republican-leaning states into play and that will be enough to stretch the battle field. It won't be a 50-state strategy, but definitely a far bigger playing field than what Kerry worked with in 2004.

In fact, Kerry's path to victory was very narrow and relied heavily on either Florida or Ohio, with either a must-win for the campaign. Obama could have lost both in '08 and still would have won the election over McCain comfortably.

That's because he's competitive and viable in Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Indiana, Missouri and, believe it or not, South Carolina. The Republican candidate will have to carry ALL those states, plus Ohio & Florida, to win. It can be done (Bush proved it in '04), but it's tough. It puts them on the defensive.

So, no, Obama should not attempt a 50-state strategy because there are states, no matter how much money he invests, that won't vote for him regardless. Utah is not going to Obama. Idaho is not going to Obama.

Now a regional race is more like it. In '04, Kerry essentially wrote off the south, conceding it was unlikely he would win a state there. Even with Edwards on the ticket (who failed to even make North Carolina competitive), the Democrats were already at a disadvantage. While they could still technically win the election without a single southern vote, it made it very hard and forced them to thread the needle just perfectly to win 270 electoral votes. Kerry couldn't do it and dropped Ohio, which he had to win, as well as Florida.

Obama has put an emphasis on the New South, which is the region he did well in four years ago and will do well in again this year. He doesn't need to win both North Carolina & Virginia - he just needs one. If he can become more competitive in Georgia, forcing the Republicans to be on the defensive there, he benefits from that, as well. That's without even getting into Florida, which, at the moment, Romney leads by less than an overall point in an average of polls from that state, so, the playing field is expanded without a true 50-state strategy.

What Obama's campaign will do is focus on regions. The West (where Obama will most likely win the electoral votes of Colorado and New Mexico - while Arizona & Nevada will be up for grabs) the Midwest (Iowa is almost a near-lock for Obama at this point and so are Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, possibly Indiana and even Michigan - Romney's home state. In Ohio, believe it or not, Obama is doing about as well has he did in polls there at the end of the '08 campaign, averaging a lead of 3.25 points) the Northeast (Pennsylvania will be the lone really important state up for grabs from this region) and the South (he's competitive in every state he won in '08 in this region).

It's not quite 50-states, but it's a plan that won't require threading the needle like Al Gore and John Kerry had to do in their campaigns.

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Arrow 45 replies Author Time Post
ellisonz Jan 2012 OP
dimbear Jan 2012 #1
DCKit Jan 2012 #2
ellisonz Jan 2012 #11
limpyhobbler Jan 2012 #3
DCBob Jan 2012 #4
Cosmocat Jan 2012 #5
ellisonz Jan 2012 #13
Cosmocat Jan 2012 #20
Liberal_Stalwart71 Jan 2012 #24
JNelson6563 Feb 2012 #34
ellisonz Feb 2012 #35
CanonRay Jan 2012 #6
ellisonz Jan 2012 #14
CanonRay Jan 2012 #17
sofa king Jan 2012 #7
Proud Liberal Dem Jan 2012 #9
ellisonz Jan 2012 #12
Liberal_Stalwart71 Jan 2012 #25
ellisonz Jan 2012 #26
3waygeek Feb 2012 #41
ellisonz Feb 2012 #43
3waygeek Feb 2012 #44
ellisonz Feb 2012 #45
Proud Liberal Dem Jan 2012 #8
ellisonz Jan 2012 #15
denem Jan 2012 #10
ellisonz Jan 2012 #16
LineReply A 50-state strategy is a misnomer...
Drunken Irishman Jan 2012 #18
ellisonz Jan 2012 #19
davidpdx Feb 2012 #38
renie408 Jan 2012 #21
ellisonz Jan 2012 #22
Liberal_Stalwart71 Jan 2012 #23
tallahasseedem Jan 2012 #27
libodem Jan 2012 #28
ellisonz Jan 2012 #29
libodem Jan 2012 #31
quaker bill Jan 2012 #30
bemildred Feb 2012 #32
rocktivity Feb 2012 #33
ellisonz Feb 2012 #36
joshcryer Feb 2012 #37
UCmeNdc Feb 2012 #39
Alexander Feb 2012 #40
Generic Brad Feb 2012 #42
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