Weighting is a polling bias (Reply #63)

In the discussion thread: Two new polls this afternoon - Georgia and Florida: [View all]

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 05:21 PM

63. Weighting is a polling bias

In other words, something like would weighing more of the mobile survey overcount the youth demographic for the population?

That is the witch doctoring I mentioned.
Those supposed population parameters
are best guesses based on past guesses.

This type of sampling is unreliable for many reasons
and the weighting is high falutin' guesses or worse

As to refusal rates...

phone refusal rates are roughly 90%
Mobile rates may be the same
or vastly smaller.
If vastly smaller, are they being
over weighted or under weighted?
What are the benchmarks?

What reliable predictive results
could be drawn from such shaky design?

Are you really making the case that
blended samples of 2000 people can
determine the pulse of several million people?

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115 replies	Author	Time	Post
Two new polls this afternoon - Georgia and Florida: [View all]	George II	Nov 2015	OP
Georgia...holy cow!	sufrommich	Nov 2015	#1
I was about to say the same thing...Holy cow Georgia n/t	Sheepshank	Nov 2015	#6
...	Liberal_in_LA	Nov 2015	#36
I will tell you why, she has the African American vote!	YOHABLO	Nov 2015	#60
Florida delivers 246 delegates to the Democratic	MineralMan	Nov 2015	#2
All you need to do is read the OP's here about any	upaloopa	Nov 2015	#5
That is some classic projection given the vitriol over at the Clinton side site.	blackspade	Nov 2015	#87
Nothing like what is posted here	upaloopa	Nov 2015	#92
That's like, your opinion, man.	blackspade	Nov 2015	#93
Math is hard	workinclasszero	Nov 2015	#74
Florida poll is a crap salad sample	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#3
Very graphic. I never order the crap salad when I dine out.	MineralMan	Nov 2015	#7
Fairly well designed... lulz	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#10
They don't. I'm not in that business.	MineralMan	Nov 2015	#19
While you're fake laughing...	Adrahil	Nov 2015	#22
Polls are for changing perception not predicting outcomes	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#25
You keep telling yourself that, Dick Morris. nt	Adrahil	Nov 2015	#27
Sanders supporters don't say that in the few polls where he's ahead.	George II	Nov 2015	#38
But, but, but ...	NanceGreggs	Nov 2015	#46
Yes, got it. Thanks for that major dose of "reality"...........	George II	Nov 2015	#72
Cosmic kitten...	CheshireDog	Nov 2015	#30
I don't think you do "get it"	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#91
There has been a lot of discussion about the issues by both candidates. The difference has been...	George II	Nov 2015	#108
It's only wrong NOW, with Sanders plummeting and Clinton soaring. Back in May and June, even..	George II	Nov 2015	#112
Why is a blended sample a crap salad?	Godhumor	Nov 2015	#8
She has no idea.. just throwing shit on the wall...	DCBob	Nov 2015	#11
Throwing crap on the wall is pretending polls predict outcomes	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#13
Or that Black people have no free will or can think for themselves.	MrWendel	Nov 2015	#80
You trollin me bro?	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#83
+1. nt.	sufrommich	Nov 2015	#16
And none of it sticks.	George II	Nov 2015	#40
What is a blended sample?	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#12
I'm sure you've seen my background here, as I talk about it frequently	Godhumor	Nov 2015	#15
What is a blended sample?	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#18
Sure. A blended sample means that responses come from more than one source type	Godhumor	Nov 2015	#32
IOW, unrelaible and no benchmarks	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#33
No, that is not what it means at all	Godhumor	Nov 2015	#34
Blended sampls are unreliable, uncontrolable and heavily biased in weighting	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#43
You're making some incorrect assumptions on how blended samples work	Godhumor	Nov 2015	#58
Weighting is a polling bias	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#63
Establishing population parameters is at the heart of scientific polling	Godhumor	Nov 2015	#67
Yes, generally landlines are elderly and wealthy people.	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#73
Let's back up. Do you know what population parameters are and how they're used?	Godhumor	Nov 2015	#79
K, dinner/family time out	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#86
And poor people who can't afford cell phones or smart phones.	George II	Nov 2015	#111
LOL ...	1StrongBlackMan	Nov 2015	#69
If there is an actual interest in learning, I don't mind doing it	Godhumor	Nov 2015	#85
I've responded to recorded voice interviews.	MineralMan	Nov 2015	#21
Maybe because the overall results are nearly identical?	George II	Nov 2015	#41
And that seems statistically probable?	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#44
Hillary's campaign is building a ground game in every	upaloopa	Nov 2015	#9
A ground game with elderly women?	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#14
"A ground game with elderly women"	sufrommich	Nov 2015	#17
Nice language	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#20
Your nasty post deserved nothing less. nt	sufrommich	Nov 2015	#26
Why so judgemental about who deserves what...too personal for me	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#29
Why do you think that stuff will attract more support	upaloopa	Nov 2015	#37
CAlling people names will help Hillary?	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#39
We are winning	upaloopa	Nov 2015	#54
Winning for Hillary is... not tripping over her own record or lies	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#56
That one is getting a little time worn	upaloopa	Nov 2015	#61
Lather Rinse Repeat	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#78
Crap Haiku.	OilemFirchen	Nov 2015	#88
Vers Libre: Freedom, Baby	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#89
Oh I think it's become pretty clear just exactly "what the fuck" that is.	Agschmid	Nov 2015	#24
Not a mind reader, spell it out	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#48
Sorry I don't take the bait. Better luck next time.	Agschmid	Nov 2015	#51
Yet here you are in the fray?	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#53
Yup I'm here, just not going to take the bait.	Agschmid	Nov 2015	#57
A last gasp dig from those who see the end is near.	oasis	Nov 2015	#35
LOL.. now you've gone an offended the one who said "A ground game with elderly women"!! Have	Cha	Nov 2015	#97
"Yuge"? Sounds like Donald Trump.	George II	Nov 2015	#47
Is it spelled lite weight or light weight?	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#49
It's spelled "N O M I N E E"	George II	Nov 2015	#75
U F U N N A Y	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#77
Yes, it's a rule on DU	RandySF	Nov 2015	#64
And every Hillary supporter became such because ...	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#66
"bernie winning in all 50 states.."?!!! WTF.. who believe such propaganda?!	Cha	Nov 2015	#98
Professional pollsters know what they're doing....	George II	Nov 2015	#70
Yeah, keeping the money rolling in hand over fist.	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#76
Didn't the rebel bernie hire one?	Cha	Nov 2015	#99
I think he or someone working for him might have, that's how they came up with him winning 50 states	George II	Nov 2015	#107
Oh.. that sounds like flying unicorns.	Cha	Nov 2015	#113
Goodness. We can still give to 20 points and Hillary would still be running away with it	yeoman6987	Nov 2015	#81
SurveyUSA gets an A rating from	riversedge	Nov 2015	#82
Oh look, the Georgia Poll is also crap salad	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#4
You sound EXACTLY like the Republicans poo-pooing the polls in 2012.	Adrahil	Nov 2015	#23
You can hardly avoid making this personal?	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#31
Oh you mean the one where romney didn't make a concession speech bc he thought he was going	Cha	Nov 2015	#100
Go Florida!	mcar	Nov 2015	#28
Clinton winning the red states... big surprise.	fbc	Nov 2015	#42
Did you think democratic primaries were only held in	sufrommich	Nov 2015	#45
She's not winning anything.	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#50
All the polls are bogus?	Cali_Democrat	Nov 2015	#62
Bogus? Who knows, but they are not predictive of outcome.	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#65
If I understand correctly:	CheshireDog	Nov 2015	#95
Or something lol	Cha	Nov 2015	#101
Yeah.	George II	Nov 2015	#68
When Sanders attracts Republicans it's wonderful, and cause for celebration	lunamagica	Nov 2015	#52
Hillary is NOT attracting republicans	Cosmic Kitten	Nov 2015	#55
If she did the Sanders fans would be complaining she's too far right.	George II	Nov 2015	#110
I love it how they have to get on a Thread that shows Hillary gaining so much traction and spout	Cha	Nov 2015	#102
They are BURNING, cha. just pure anger and desperation at the realization that	lunamagica	Nov 2015	#104
Yes "lashing".. Too bad.. we have an election to win in 2016 and we need the best	Cha	Nov 2015	#105
Oh, but we know union endorsements don't matter. Or polls. It's all about Facebok, baby, Facebook!	lunamagica	Nov 2015	#106
Nah, I saw a post that said corporations were for Hill and unions were for BS.. so I'm going	Cha	Nov 2015	#114
Kick	RandySF	Nov 2015	#59
BOOM! X2!	workinclasszero	Nov 2015	#71
Not surprising in two conservative states.	blackspade	Nov 2015	#84
I need. a Sanders supporter to tell me why this is great for Sanders	Orrex	Nov 2015	#90
Have these polls been unskewed yet?	DemocratSinceBirth	Nov 2015	#94
Kick & highly recommended!	William769	Nov 2015	#96
K&R	McCamy Taylor	Nov 2015	#103
Its all over but the cryin	workinclasszero	Nov 2015	#109
With super delegates	madville	Nov 2015	#115

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