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Response to winter is coming (Reply #25)

Thu Nov 12, 2015, 06:13 PM

32. Gallup ALWAYS carefully labels their polls, and their policy is not to shift to

likely voters till much later in the process.

This is not a poll of likely voters. If it were, they would have said.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110272/registered-voters-vs-likely-voters.aspx

Two final notes.

Some observers have argued that the Obama campaign will successfully increase turnout among groups that typically are less likely to vote, including in particular young voters. We are keenly aware of these hypotheses and are continually and carefully analyzing our data to make sure we pick up any unique or unusual surge of turnout potential among certain subgroups of the population.

Second, we are at this point reporting likely voter estimates on only an occasional basis. We feel that the trends among registered voters give us the best way to track election preferences in our daily poll, in part because many voters are not yet in a position to accurately estimate their chances of voting on Election Day. But from time to time, we do estimate (and report) likely voter results to give us a feel for the potential difference turnout could make in November. So far this summer, there have been occasions when -- as was the case this past weekend after the GOP convention -- likely voters were decidedly more Republican. But there have also been occasions when there was little difference between the vote patterns of likely voters and those of registered voters. We will continue to monitor these patterns as Election Day draws closer.

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