2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Why would a Democrat vote for H. Clinton and Citizens United? [View all]Gothmog
(145,147 posts)The values in the Predictive markets are based on the free market system of people placing odds or assessing the probability that a certain event will occur. There are people in Ireland and other countries who are making investment decisions based on the odds being quoted on the predictive markets which is how the values for the predictive markets are determined. Predictwse aggregates the results of a couple of different market places where investors or humans are making investment decisions based on their belief as to the accuracy of the prices shown on the markets. Most investors are betting that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and Predictwise's assessment that there is a 93% chance that Hillary Clinton will be the nominee is based on the market prices determined on these financial markets.
The free market system can be very accurate as to the valuation of certain factors The old Intrade system was very very accuarte in the prediction of a number of races in large part because the free market system works