2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Poll: Clinton leads Sanders by 9 points in Iowa [View all]CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)I think this bodes very well for Bernie.
Hillary's initial support is due to name recognition and the media touting her "inevitability."
This happened in 2008.
Slowly, as these campaigns ramp up--Iowans get very active in the process. Most everyone I know attends several rallies. We are serious about doing adequate due diligence when it comes to making our final caucus decision.
The final six weeks of the campaigns--when they really get heated up--are when things shift and people make their final decisions. So much can happen during that final six weeks.
The state is literally taken over by the campaigns and the media covering the campaigns.
On another note--It will be interesting to see what happens to O'Malley. If he's consistently at 4 percent, most likely his supporters will arrive to the caucuses, only to find that they have to join another candidate camp (either Sanders or Clinton) otherwise their caucus votes will not count. In order to earn delegates in each of the caucuses--your candidate must meet a percentage threshold of total votes. If not, you must join a camp that is determined "viable". This happened to me with Dean. I had to move to another camp or sit out the process. So...where O'Malley supporters go could affect the final outcome.