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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Poll: Clinton leads Sanders by 9 points in Iowa [View all]CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)13. Wrong! Those were polls taken a month before the 2008 Iowa caucuses.
In 2008, the Iowa caucuses were held a month earlier (January 3) than they are this 2015 election cycle (Feb 1).
Yes, 4-5 weeks prior to the 2008 caucuses--the polls you sited indicate that the race was closer.
However, if you look at the polls for 2008 at 10 weeks out (where we are today), you will find that Clinton was leading in all polls.
Des Moines Register poll had Hillary +7 (October 1)
American Research Group had Hillary +10 (October 26)
American Research Group had Hillary +6 six weeks before the caucuses (Nov 10)
I think others make this same mistake.
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AP/Pew poll released 8 years ago today showed Clinton beating Obama by 26% nationally, 19% in New
Attorney in Texas
Nov 2015
#12
90 percent track record:Iowa Dem caucus winners win the Democratic nomination
CoffeeCat
Nov 2015
#56
?? "The Iowa caucuses are Dec. 1st followed by the New Hampshire primary on Dec. 8th." ??
Jarqui
Nov 2015
#66
Yes, gave Obama the mojo. But Sanders does not have the southern strategy to continues the mojo
riversedge
Nov 2015
#37
Regardless of who leads or who wins, I am definitely disparaging your caucuses
CajunBlazer
Nov 2015
#40
A little funny that Sanders only real shot is a state that doesn't represent the country....
NCTraveler
Nov 2015
#20
It's kind of too obvious to explain and I'm certian you get it. Thanks for the reply. nt.
NCTraveler
Nov 2015
#30
I think the article should be titled: Bernie closing on Hillary in Iowa.
Todays_Illusion
Nov 2015
#21
The trend in the news is to claim Bernie is far behind Hillary around 30% and up.
Todays_Illusion
Nov 2015
#33
No offense intended, Just another way to report the same information. Yes I support Bernie, ;)
Todays_Illusion
Nov 2015
#63
Leading by 9 is not a horse race. He hasn't lead Nor pulled within 2-3 points
FloridaBlues
Nov 2015
#52