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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Fri Nov 27, 2015, 03:24 PM

55. The Democratic Blue Wall is not magical

I am very familiar with the Democratic Blue Wall and the analysis behind that grouping. In each of the races where the Democrats have won states behind the blue wall, we had a competitive canidate who either spent more than the GOP candidate (Obama in 2008) or a similiar amount as the GOP candidate (Gore 2000, Kerry 2004 and Obama 2012). The swing states were blue because the Democratic candidate was viable and could match the funding of the GOP candidate.

Very few of these states behind the Democratic blue wall are locks so that anyone with a D behind their name are assured of winning. In each of the elections where the blue wall came into play, we have well financed candidates who were otherwise viable. Sanders will need to raise over a billion dollars to be competitive given that the GOP will spend atleast that and the Koch Brothers are spending $889 mllion.

Right now several of the states in the list of blue states have GOP governors and so a democratic victory in these states is not a lock. The Democratic blue wall is not magic and even now Nate Silvers rates Hillary Clinton as being 50/50 in winning in 2016 even given her funding advantage. If we run somone who can not compete with the GOP candidate, the blue wall will not save that candidate

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Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 OP
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LineReply The Democratic Blue Wall is not magical
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