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Response to Jarqui (Reply #61)

Fri Nov 27, 2015, 04:41 PM

62. Predictwise is the successor to Intrade which had a great track record

The free market system works and people who invest their money in positions on election outcomes are very very careful and use a number of different tools. Intrade was very accurate in predicting election results https://www.quora.com/How-accurate-has-Intrade-been-at-predicting-the-result-of-U-S-elections

In the last election it was 90% for all elections (non presidential) the last Presidential election they were correct on all of them, except Missouri but that didn't get called until two weeks after the election, the earlier elections were in excess of 88% but were in the very early days of Intrade.

The interesting part about the Intrade data is that you can make accurate predictions a week in advance of the election,

Here is the actual results of the intrade prediction for the 2008 election vs the actual results http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php

2008 Electoral Map - Election Results
Shown immediately below is the electoral map depicting the results of the 2008 presidential election in which Barack Obama won with 365 electoral votes to John McCain's 173. Below, the Intrade results are shown. Further down you will find the 2008 pollster report card.


2008 Electoral Map - Intrade Forecast
Shown immediately below is the Nov 4, 2008 election day forecast from the Intrade prediction market. Intrade did not predict Nebraska splitting its votes, and it was the first time in state history that this happened. Missouri and Indiana were also reversed in the forecast, but both having eleven electoral votes resulted in a nearly dead-on electoral vote count.

Predictwise is the successor to Intrade with features built in to make it harder for US investors to place bets. I would not discount the accuracy of these systems

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