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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » Do you believe in a 50-St... » Reply #40

Response to ellisonz (Original post)

Sun Feb 5, 2012, 10:13 AM

40. Yes, not necessarily for Obama's re-election campaign, but for Congress.

 

As other DUers have pointed out, Obama didn't really run a "50-state strategy" in 2008, it was more like a 30-35 state strategy. He won 28 states plus DC and had invested time and money in a few more.

However, in the 2006 and 2008 congressional elections, Democrats were able to pick up House and Senate seats in places like Alabama, Arizona, Idaho, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.

All of these states are generally considered "red" and Obama only won three of them in 2008.

I even remember Wyoming's at-large House seat was up for grabs in 2006, and Democrat Gary Trauner very nearly defeated Republican Barbara Cubin.

So as far as presidential races go, no, I don't believe in a 50-state strategy, more like a 35-state strategy. It's very rare that we have an election like 1936, 1964, 1972 or 1984 where the incumbent wins about 60% of the vote and the challenger receives less than 100 Electoral Votes.

In all of these examples, the incumbent president was popular, people generally thought the country was heading in the right direction, and the challenger was incredibly weak. And in all these examples, the incumbent was not deliberately running a 50-state strategy either. FDR even quipped, "I wish I had visited Maine and Vermont" shortly after the 1936 election.

When it comes to down-ballot races though, the 50-state strategy is definitely the way to go.

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ellisonz Jan 2012 OP
dimbear Jan 2012 #1
DCKit Jan 2012 #2
ellisonz Jan 2012 #11
limpyhobbler Jan 2012 #3
DCBob Jan 2012 #4
Cosmocat Jan 2012 #5
ellisonz Jan 2012 #13
Cosmocat Jan 2012 #20
Liberal_Stalwart71 Jan 2012 #24
JNelson6563 Feb 2012 #34
ellisonz Feb 2012 #35
CanonRay Jan 2012 #6
ellisonz Jan 2012 #14
CanonRay Jan 2012 #17
sofa king Jan 2012 #7
Proud Liberal Dem Jan 2012 #9
ellisonz Jan 2012 #12
Liberal_Stalwart71 Jan 2012 #25
ellisonz Jan 2012 #26
3waygeek Feb 2012 #41
ellisonz Feb 2012 #43
3waygeek Feb 2012 #44
ellisonz Feb 2012 #45
Proud Liberal Dem Jan 2012 #8
ellisonz Jan 2012 #15
denem Jan 2012 #10
ellisonz Jan 2012 #16
Drunken Irishman Jan 2012 #18
ellisonz Jan 2012 #19
davidpdx Feb 2012 #38
renie408 Jan 2012 #21
ellisonz Jan 2012 #22
Liberal_Stalwart71 Jan 2012 #23
tallahasseedem Jan 2012 #27
libodem Jan 2012 #28
ellisonz Jan 2012 #29
libodem Jan 2012 #31
quaker bill Jan 2012 #30
bemildred Feb 2012 #32
rocktivity Feb 2012 #33
ellisonz Feb 2012 #36
joshcryer Feb 2012 #37
UCmeNdc Feb 2012 #39
LineNew Reply Yes, not necessarily for Obama's re-election campaign, but for Congress.
Alexander Feb 2012 #40
Generic Brad Feb 2012 #42
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