2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: The Sanders campaign is EXACTLY where it should be at this moment in Iowa [View all]CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)Six weeks before the Iowa caucuses, and Bernie Sanders is within single digits of Hillary Clinton.
Holy crap! So fantastic!
Bernie began in Iowa polling at 4 percent in the spring. And he's whittled Clinton's lead to within 9 points.
Bernie can win this. There is no doubt in my mind.
Something else worth noting. During the summer, Bernie was attracting extremely large crowds in Iowa.
And his polls surged. Then, he stopped doing large events in Iowa has mainly focused on small-event venues. The number of Iowa Bernie appearances dropped off after the summer, as well.
I imagine that Bernie saw that he could draw 1000+ crowds in Iowa and decided to save those large-scale events for the last few weeks of the Iowa campaign season--when those optics would have the greatest impact. Most Iowans make up their minds a few weeks prior to the caucuses, and they attend those rallies as a way to glean more information about the candidate.
It is almost certain that we will see a Sanders resurgence, once he ramps up his Iowa rallies/events again. He surged in the summer when he had those rallies. Of course, he can do it again!
As an Iowan, I am truly excited about the next several weeks. This is going to be a brutal fight until caucus night. Nothing is certain, for either camp, and I think both camps understand that very well.
This Iowa poll, conducted by Ann Selzer, is known as the "gold standard" in Iowa polling. She polls Iowans who are "likely to participate in the Democratic caucuses". Therefore, she polls those who haven't caucused before, the younger voters and Iowa Independents who will cross over and vote for Democratic candidates. Bernie leads in all of those categories, according to this Iowa poll ( I knew that Monmouth Poll was a load of horseshit, and it truly was. We can all relegate that piece of crap to the poll trash heap).
I'd rather that Bernie be leading of course. However, the results of this poll are such terrific news!
Bernie is within striking distance and he can win Iowa! He's been consistently ahead in NH. So exciting!