2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: New CBS News Iowa poll -- Sanders pulls within 5% of Clinton: Clinton 50%, Sanders 45%, O'Malley 4% [View all]CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)This CBS/YouGov poll has Sanders behind by 5. This is in line with Ann Selzer's Iowa poll, which is considered the most important and accurate polling done in the state of Iowa. That poll, released less than a week ago, has Bernie behind by 9.
Selzer has been wildly accurate when it comes to Iowa races, and it's due to her scientific methods and sterling methodologies.
All of Iowa (both Democrats and Republicans) were on pins and needles waiting for her numbers, because she's just that good. Nate Sliver published his analysis of 300 polling firms and compared their analysis with election-day results. Silver gave 3 A-pluses and one of them was to Seltzer.
Another point to consider. Iowans are starting to ramp up their caucus season. People are making up their minds and will continue to do so, especially in January. It appears that the polls are tightening as final candidate selections are made.
Also, here are the stats on attendance at Clinton v. Bernie rallies in Iowa in the last two weeks.
Clinton
200 attendees--"Fighting for Us" Town Hall in Ft. Dodge, Iowa (12/4) Source: ABC News
350 attendees--"Fighting For Us" Town Hall in Waterloo, Iowa (12/9) Source: Waterloo Courier
250 attendees_"Fighting For Us" Town Hall in Urbandale Iowa (12/9) Source: Radio Iowa
Sanders
2000 attendees--Sanders Town Meeting in Dubuque, Iowa (12/12) Overflow crowd Source: Radio Iowa
1500 attendees--Sanders Town Meeting in Waterloo, Iowa (12/12) Standing-room only. Source: Waterloo Courier
1125 attendees--Sanders Town Hall in Mt. Vernon, Iowa (12/13)
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