2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: In Iowa Sanders' support rose +34% and Clinton's dropped -8%, and in NH Sanders rose +40% while [View all]Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)you are using the poll to preemptively declare a winner before the votes are cast.
Polls that show Clinton ahead in Iowa probably indicate that she is -- more likely than not -- currently ahead in Iowa at this moment.
Polls that show Sanders ahead in NH probably indicate that he is -- more likely than not -- currently ahead in NH at this moment.
What's so complicated about that?
Do current polls in Iowa and New Hampshire generally provide more salient information than national polls? Yes.
Are live phone polls that sample a large number of landlines and cell phones generally more reliable than robo-call polls? Yes.
Is a pollster who has both a good track record of accuracy and also a long involvement polling this cycle in the particular state generally more reliable that an infrequent pollster or a pollster will little or no track record? Yes.
All of these generalities apply to polling regardless of whether it currently encourages Clinton or currently encourages Sanders.