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Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
18. Polls are not ballot boxes. No matter who has momentum in the polls, you are misreading the poll if
Sun Dec 27, 2015, 02:05 AM
Dec 2015

you are using the poll to preemptively declare a winner before the votes are cast.

Polls that show Clinton ahead in Iowa probably indicate that she is -- more likely than not -- currently ahead in Iowa at this moment.

Polls that show Sanders ahead in NH probably indicate that he is -- more likely than not -- currently ahead in NH at this moment.

What's so complicated about that?

Do current polls in Iowa and New Hampshire generally provide more salient information than national polls? Yes.

Are live phone polls that sample a large number of landlines and cell phones generally more reliable than robo-call polls? Yes.

Is a pollster who has both a good track record of accuracy and also a long involvement polling this cycle in the particular state generally more reliable that an infrequent pollster or a pollster will little or no track record? Yes.

All of these generalities apply to polling regardless of whether it currently encourages Clinton or currently encourages Sanders.

In other words, Clinton is ahead by a comfortable margin. DanTex Dec 2015 #1
Lol. I was all... Wtf? Thank you for bottom lining it for me. Too fuggin' funny! Nt. seabeyond Dec 2015 #2
Really do you know what you are reading? Bernie has climbed from barely on the radar Luminous Animal Dec 2015 #5
This message was self-deleted by its author seabeyond Dec 2015 #9
she is leading on land lines. roguevalley Dec 2015 #16
Emails Bjornsdotter Dec 2015 #26
Sure, with respect to O'Malley. morningfog Dec 2015 #4
If "ahead by a comfortable margin" means "behind in NH" and "single-digit lead in Iowa," then yes! Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #7
nine points is not a comfortable margin. Ken Burch Dec 2015 #21
No, she is not. She has lost one third of the already shrinking Dem base which was never Bernie's sabrina 1 Dec 2015 #38
Wow, Sanders is ahead in Iowa CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #3
That poll is for New Hampshire only n/t ejbr Dec 2015 #6
And this poll has him behind in NH. uberblonde Dec 2015 #8
You can't really tell much because ARG is offering this as a one-of-a-kind poll (i.e., they don't Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #19
The latest CBS/YouGov has Sanders behind by only five in Iowa... CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #10
Sanders definitely has stronger poll results in Iowa and NH - I just chose those polls because they Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #11
didn't Omalley's support Rise like 300 percent in some polls ? JI7 Dec 2015 #12
O'Malley is a perfect example CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #13
Dws and her friends should not discount om either restorefreedom Dec 2015 #14
hang on a minute..... ronbison Dec 2015 #15
Damn Old Codger Dec 2015 #17
Make that two lists. n/t bvf Dec 2015 #22
Polls are not ballot boxes. No matter who has momentum in the polls, you are misreading the poll if Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #18
Wow...two ignore lists ronbison Dec 2015 #37
Ofuscate much............ Historic NY Dec 2015 #20
Spell much? bvf Dec 2015 #23
I think Historic NY majored in creative spelling Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #24
WTF?? DCBob Dec 2015 #25
Where was Clinton's Iowa and New Hampshire polling in January and where is it now? Where was Sanders Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #28
Which means nothing regarding the real trend of this election. DCBob Dec 2015 #29
LOL!!!! Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #30
Good you at least see the humor in your folly. DCBob Dec 2015 #31
Clinton falling in Iowa and New Hampshire while Sanders rises in both states "doesn't matter" - HA! Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #32
Not funny anymore?? DCBob Dec 2015 #33
No, you're on a roll! Keep 'em coming Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #35
THe More people get to know Bernie the MORE they like him Ferd Berfel Dec 2015 #27
Why does one poll show Bernie ahead TheFarseer Dec 2015 #34
Polls showing Clinton slightly ahead are generally Iowa polls, polls showing Sanders slightly ahead Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #36
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