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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: In Iowa Sanders' support rose +34% and Clinton's dropped -8%, and in NH Sanders rose +40% while [View all]Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)36. Polls showing Clinton slightly ahead are generally Iowa polls, polls showing Sanders slightly ahead
are generally NH polls, and polls showing Clinton far ahead are generally meaningless national polls. Here is how 538 explained the meaninglessness of the national polls:
Ignore national primary polls they measure nothing. (But state polls matter.) Unlike in general elections, when all states vote on the same day, the primary calendar is sequential; each states results often affect the next states. The national polls dont add to your understanding of the race just look at surveys of the upcoming states.
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In Iowa Sanders' support rose +34% and Clinton's dropped -8%, and in NH Sanders rose +40% while [View all]
Attorney in Texas
Dec 2015
OP
Lol. I was all... Wtf? Thank you for bottom lining it for me. Too fuggin' funny! Nt.
seabeyond
Dec 2015
#2
Really do you know what you are reading? Bernie has climbed from barely on the radar
Luminous Animal
Dec 2015
#5
If "ahead by a comfortable margin" means "behind in NH" and "single-digit lead in Iowa," then yes!
Attorney in Texas
Dec 2015
#7
No, she is not. She has lost one third of the already shrinking Dem base which was never Bernie's
sabrina 1
Dec 2015
#38
You can't really tell much because ARG is offering this as a one-of-a-kind poll (i.e., they don't
Attorney in Texas
Dec 2015
#19
Sanders definitely has stronger poll results in Iowa and NH - I just chose those polls because they
Attorney in Texas
Dec 2015
#11
Polls are not ballot boxes. No matter who has momentum in the polls, you are misreading the poll if
Attorney in Texas
Dec 2015
#18
Where was Clinton's Iowa and New Hampshire polling in January and where is it now? Where was Sanders
Attorney in Texas
Dec 2015
#28
Clinton falling in Iowa and New Hampshire while Sanders rises in both states "doesn't matter" - HA!
Attorney in Texas
Dec 2015
#32
Polls showing Clinton slightly ahead are generally Iowa polls, polls showing Sanders slightly ahead
Attorney in Texas
Dec 2015
#36