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Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Change Versus Experience [View all]Gothmog
(145,131 posts)10. We can not afford four more years of trump
trump can easily win in 2020 if we nominate a weak candidate We have to defeat trump. There is a very good chance that trump will win if we pick a weak or unsafe choice. There are posters who believe that we can nominate the most liberal/socialist nominee as possible and that candidate will easily win because everyone hates trump. It is their position that this is a historic opportunity to nominate someone would otherwise not be electable.
From Larry Sabato https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-economy-got-nixon-reagan-and-bush-reelected-it-could-do-it-for-trump-too/2019/04/23/b8920d34-65e6-11e9-a1b6-b29b90efa879_story.html?utm_term=.a35b315730d2
Ultimately, Trump may turn out to be at the mercy of conventional factors. In 2016, academic predictive models based on fundamentals such as the state of the economy suggested that Trump, or any other Republican candidate, was in position to win the election or come very close. This time, such models (once they become operative next year) could make Trump the early favorite despite his poor approval ratings.
Credit the powers of incumbency and a strong economy, the state of which may matter more to Trumps odds than nearly anything else. Incumbency and the economy, among other matters, ended up being more than enough for Nixon, Reagan and Bush. Despite Trumps unprecedented outlandishness, that same combination might work for him, too.
Credit the powers of incumbency and a strong economy, the state of which may matter more to Trumps odds than nearly anything else. Incumbency and the economy, among other matters, ended up being more than enough for Nixon, Reagan and Bush. Despite Trumps unprecedented outlandishness, that same combination might work for him, too.
Most POTUS are re-elected if the economy is good. Here is a scary study that shows this
Link to tweet
There are good reasons to doubt this study
Link to tweet
I do not believe that trump is assured of winning. If we want to win, Democrats need to nominate a strong nominee who is NOT too far out of the mainstream
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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That means nothing. As candidates drop out logically those number will chNge
Thekaspervote
May 2019
#51
But right now they are not going for Biden. He's still under 50 per cent, so
marylandblue
May 2019
#93
First of all, I said "most." Second, Sanders was always on his, out of step with others
marylandblue
May 2019
#92
No Bernie in the primary...general yes. Given the new polls, you are in the minority.
Demsrule86
May 2019
#2
the formula is pretty simple. get behind your chosen candidate bc they excite you. Not bc of
Kurt V.
May 2019
#12
Let me know when he offers something other than how much better he is than Trump.
BlueStater
May 2019
#53
I constantly ask his supporters whether he stands for anything other than being better than Trump
BlueStater
May 2019
#71
I had a whole thread asking what his appeal is and got one policy related response...
TCJ70
May 2019
#87
If the economy remains strong, trump can win in 2020 if we nominate a weak candidate
Gothmog
May 2019
#79
the candidate that generates the most enthusiasm, excitement, change call it what you want,
Kurt V.
May 2019
#7
Relationships with the press are something you cultivate behind the scenes.
marylandblue
May 2019
#34
If people think this country's government needs stabilizing and reconstituting, Joe's their guy.
ancianita
May 2019
#14
I absolutely believe we'll have it both ways. Joe's old, but he's never been backward
ancianita
May 2019
#26
Connect "fix" with change. Consider that I think change must not be for the sake of change.
ancianita
May 2019
#31
Agree! Having worked in the medical profession all my life good solid change always came from
Thekaspervote
May 2019
#56
There aren't any yet. And I think you know that. Gallup hasn't done a poll on the state of govt.
ancianita
May 2019
#33
That's kind of my point. But I stated it as a question since I wasn't sure.
marylandblue
May 2019
#35
Maybe polling about govt. will come later. But for now, we just have to tap into the ones we see.
ancianita
May 2019
#36
Interesting. Those transformative presidents began as candidates who tapped into change. I get it.
ancianita
May 2019
#68
Part of the theory is at the end of era, the last president is a "disjunctive" President
marylandblue
May 2019
#77
I appreciate this historical analysis. Most voters don't understand or think this, but feel it.
ancianita
May 2019
#80
Polls can ask whatever they want to ask, but ask the wrong question and you'll get a uselessanswer.
marylandblue
May 2019
#44
FYI: you might have said that to begin with. Your post does initially seem divisive
Thekaspervote
May 2019
#61
Sometimes saving the country might come first, because the way our branches are at war...
ancianita
May 2019
#38
If we pick the wrong candidate, we are headed for destruction anyway, even if win.
marylandblue
May 2019
#28
I want an establishment candidate. We are in CHAOS right now. FUCKING CHAOS.
themaguffin
May 2019
#81
Washington Post-Opinion: If the economy keeps its momentum, 2020 will be Trump's to lose
Gothmog
May 2019
#110