Is Bernie Sanders Finished? [View all]

Democrats like him. They just show no signs of wanting to vote for him this time around.

By Jonathan Bernstein
June 10, 2019, 6:33 AM EDT

At least a dozen Democratic presidential candidates have plausible paths to the nomination. Maybe more than that. And after the 2016 election, I’m not counting anyone out. That said: I think it’s starting to sink in that Senator Bernie Sanders is right at the fringes of plausibility. At best.

That’s what I’m seeing from the mainstream media, some liberal bloggers and sophisticated polling analysis. Recent Iowa polls show Sanders at about 15%, essentially in a three-person race for second place with Senator Elizabeth Warren and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. That’s for a candidate who won half the vote there in 2016.

And while Sanders is faring somewhat better nationally, that’s mainly because almost all the other candidates remain unknown to voters. As Nate Silver points out, only about 8% of Democrats say they’re definitely supporting Sanders. In other words, it’s entirely plausible that Sanders could fail to reach the delegate threshold in Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina (and possibly New Hampshire). Even if he stayed in, he probably wouldn’t be much of a factor.

Sanders does have some assets, of course. That 8% matches former Vice President Joe Biden’s dedicated voters, and no one else registers as more than a rounding error at this point. If it’s true that any candidate can catch fire and surge in the polls, then Sanders definitely starts a step ahead of everyone but Biden. He also has plenty of money and the capacity for raising more. He remains well-liked by Democrats.

more
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-10/bernie-sanders-might-not-be-a-viable-2020-contender