Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Democratic Primaries

thesquanderer

(11,972 posts)

9. OTOH, this is an interesting poll about "second choices"...

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #2)

Sun Jun 16, 2019, 10:41 AM

Jun 2019

According to https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Among Biden supporters, the leading "second choice" is Sanders, who is picked by 30% of them.
But among Sanders supporters, the leading "second choice" is Biden, who is picked by 33% of them.

So more Sanders supporters like Biden as second choice than the other way around!

Anyway, I think this argues against your premise that it would be hard for Sanders to "convince his supporters to back another candidate, assuming he isn't the nominee." And really, I think the vast majority of Sanders supporters will support ANY Dem candidate against Trump, and that's what matters. Remember, for all the angst about it around here, the vast majority (about 88%) of Sanders primary voters did end up voting for Hillary against Trump last time. By comparison, it looks like only about 70% of people who voted for Hillary in the 2008 primary voted for Obama in the general...

https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/General-Election-Vote-by-Primary-Vote_tbl2_249278018

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

16 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

CBS News Battleground Tracker poll: Biden leads, with Warren, Harris, Sanders close behind [View all] DonViejo Jun 2019 OP

The paragraph about first-choice vote is most crucial here: highplainsdem Jun 2019 #1

But kind of surprising that 45% of voters aren't even *considering* Biden. thesquanderer Jun 2019 #5

Well, to use that criteria, 51% aren't considering Warren, 55% Harris, and a surprising 57%.... George II Jun 2019 #7

I agree, Biden's position here is much stronger than Sanders'. thesquanderer Jun 2019 #8

I don't think the voters know nearly enough about Warren or Buttigieg. marylandblue Jun 2019 #10

Thanks for highlighting that, highplainsdem! Cha Jun 2019 #14

Another interesting detail: Sanders supporters are least likely to consider other candidates. highplainsdem Jun 2019 #2

OTOH, this is an interesting poll about "second choices"... thesquanderer Jun 2019 #9

That's Biden's job too BlueWI Jun 2019 #15

Here are the first choice results: George II Jun 2019 #3

WOW! High Impact Graphic Peacetrain Jun 2019 #4

If Warren & Sanders weren't splitting the left, it looks like their combined voters could beat Biden thesquanderer Jun 2019 #6

Neither will drop out, but one will be way ahead of the other marylandblue Jun 2019 #11

I don't expect either to drop out either. They're both doing well and have resources. thesquanderer Jun 2019 #12

The most unexpected thing in this campaign will be marylandblue Jun 2019 #13

There will be the same ceiling as in 16 and Biden the perceived moderate who can beat Trump will win Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #16