Interesting polling insight into why Biden might be leading - and why his message is what it is.

[MineralMan]

29. That's a good analysis, I think.

Looking at the aggregate polling results, Biden has been ahead of the rest of the field since the beginning of the charting. Even before he had announced, he led the polling. Once he announced, he moved into a double-digit lead, which he has not lost since.

Part of that is the large pool of candidates, where non-Biden votes can be distributed. Down the list are a number of candidates with single-digit polling numbers. It's not completely clear where those preferences will be distributed when those candidates are no longer attracting people as their preferred candidate.

In any case, Biden has attracted and held a solid lead all along. That group will probably not shift to his closest competitors. The battle, at the moment, is really between Sanders and Warren, for the preferences of those who see themselves as progressives. I believe they will vie with each other right through Super Tuesday primaries and still be close in numbers after that.

However, those with preferences for lower-ranking candidates will begin to redistribute themselves. Looking at those other candidates, I think a majority of them will shift to Biden. If that is the case, his lead over the closest competitors will increase.

We won't know how that all plays out, though, until after the Super Tuesday primaries. But, then, the trend will be clearly visible. It's going to be a long, drawn-out primary race until then.