Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: The term "boy" when referring to a black man is considered a racial epithet [View all]marylandblue
(12,344 posts)I'm just trying to draw lessons from past elections, particularly 2016, and apply then to 2020. How did inexperienced Trump beat a field of 16 Republicans including well-known, highly competent leaders, plus Clinton? Regarding swift-boating, they tried to do it to Bill Clinton and Obama, how did they survive where others didn't?
I concluded that experience is irrelevant. Both Clinton and Obama defeated better known, more experienced candidates in primaries and general elections.
What matters is having an effective media strategy. Trump is a master at manipulating media both on and off camera. Bill and Obama had their own ways of handling media, they made relatively few mistakes and had ways of handling negative information that put those stories to rest.
Of the candidates we now have, Buttigieg, O'Rourke and Warren have used effective media strategies. Buttigieg may be sunk by the shooting, and I don't think any media strategy can combat that. O'Rourke made some mistakes but I see him learning from his mistakes, so he might recover. Warren is using a disciplined thematic message to get her point across and it seems to be working. We'll see what happens when the inevitable attacks come, but I'm guessing, "she has a plan for that."
I don't see Biden being effective in terms of handling negative information and the media. His message is uncertain (as with the Hyde Amendment), He responds too slowly (took almost a full day to respond to this latest thing) and his response just ended up dragging out longer.
You are right we can't predict the future, but we make educated guesses all the time. Any assessment of "electibility" should include the candidate's media strategy and it's effectiveness. That's my own best guess as to how to win.
I know we both want the same thing.
Cheers.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden