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Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: I'm glad the superdelegate system is different this time around... [View all]Gothmog
(145,079 posts)27. Eliminating Super delegates will not help sanders but will help Harris
Eliminating superdelegates is not a magical fix for sanders and will not help sanders win the nomination. In fact, this plan will help a real Democrat, Senator K. Harris https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/03/democratic-party-superdelegate-system-benefits-kamala-harris/
Harris, not Sanders, will be the probable beneficiary of the rules change because of the demographic makeup of the Democratic primary electorate. It would not be an oversimplification to say that the Democrats divide into three rough groups: progressives, centrists, and non-whites. African-Americans are by far the largest share of the last group, totaling nearly a quarter of all Democratic voters nationwide.
Democratic party nomination fights have followed a similar pattern since at least 1984. A candidate appealing to educated, more liberal Democrats challenges a relatively more centrist rival favored by the party establishment; the progressive wins most primaries and caucuses in New England, the West, and Wisconsin, while the centrist wins most of the remaining states. This outcome has historically doomed the progressive, from 1984 challenger Senator Gary Hart to Sanders himself, because there are more centrists than progressives or liberals.
The non-white vote, and especially the African-American vote, plays an underappreciated role in this process. Non-whites almost invariably back the more centrist candidate, providing that person with key support to defeat his or her more liberal challenger. African-Americans and Latinos backed Walter Mondale over Hart in 1984 and Bill Clinton over Paul Tsongas and Jerry Brown in 1992, delivering the nomination to both men in the process. They did so again in 2016, backing Hillary Clinton by margins as large as 80 percent, allowing her to win most Southern and Midwestern primary states as a result.
African-American voters do break from this mold, however, when a serious African-American candidate is running. Jesse Jackson won two states dominated by African-American Democrats in 1984 and swept six Southern states in 1988. Crucially, Barack Obama owed his nomination in 2008 to African-American voters, riding their overwhelming support to win seven Southern states and many delegates in Midwestern and Northeastern states with large, urban black populations. If not for their support, Obama would have merely been yet another failed progressive challenger.
Democratic party nomination fights have followed a similar pattern since at least 1984. A candidate appealing to educated, more liberal Democrats challenges a relatively more centrist rival favored by the party establishment; the progressive wins most primaries and caucuses in New England, the West, and Wisconsin, while the centrist wins most of the remaining states. This outcome has historically doomed the progressive, from 1984 challenger Senator Gary Hart to Sanders himself, because there are more centrists than progressives or liberals.
The non-white vote, and especially the African-American vote, plays an underappreciated role in this process. Non-whites almost invariably back the more centrist candidate, providing that person with key support to defeat his or her more liberal challenger. African-Americans and Latinos backed Walter Mondale over Hart in 1984 and Bill Clinton over Paul Tsongas and Jerry Brown in 1992, delivering the nomination to both men in the process. They did so again in 2016, backing Hillary Clinton by margins as large as 80 percent, allowing her to win most Southern and Midwestern primary states as a result.
African-American voters do break from this mold, however, when a serious African-American candidate is running. Jesse Jackson won two states dominated by African-American Democrats in 1984 and swept six Southern states in 1988. Crucially, Barack Obama owed his nomination in 2008 to African-American voters, riding their overwhelming support to win seven Southern states and many delegates in Midwestern and Northeastern states with large, urban black populations. If not for their support, Obama would have merely been yet another failed progressive challenger.
Magic does not work in the real world and eliminating super delegates will not help sanders magically win the nomination
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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My guess is that if Biden and anyone but Bernie were 1/2 but short of winning the nomination
Blue_true
Mar 2019
#57
As long as his followers are chanting his name, he will never stop. I hope I'm wrong,
LongtimeAZDem
Mar 2019
#20
The gathering for Harris of South Carolina sorority women showed the problem for Bernie.
Blue_true
Mar 2019
#58
Sanders didn't invent progressivism and he's not the only progressive candidate
emulatorloo
Mar 2019
#40
I just have to point out there's been some revisionist history regarding media coverage.
Garrett78
Mar 2019
#2
Claims have been made and would, in response to your OP, be made again that...
Garrett78
Mar 2019
#8
There are many that report it as a tie in NH and as Hillary increasing her lead due to Super D's
CentralMass
Mar 2019
#14
I just Googled "MSNBC 2016 New Hampshire primary" and here's the first article I found:
Garrett78
Mar 2019
#15
See my last post. I addressed the fact that there was talk of superdelegates, as there always is.
Garrett78
Mar 2019
#17
If the Republicans had a superdelegate system, Trump would not be president
LongtimeAZDem
Mar 2019
#21
Rep. Cedric Richmond, the Congressional Black Caucus chair, blasts proposed superdelegate changes
Gothmog
Mar 2019
#24
Dunno, the most "inaccurate" thing I saw last time was misrepresented Open Secrets data
emulatorloo
Mar 2019
#44