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Gothmog

(145,079 posts)
27. Eliminating Super delegates will not help sanders but will help Harris
Sat Mar 9, 2019, 03:04 PM
Mar 2019

Eliminating superdelegates is not a magical fix for sanders and will not help sanders win the nomination. In fact, this plan will help a real Democrat, Senator K. Harris https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/03/democratic-party-superdelegate-system-benefits-kamala-harris/

Harris, not Sanders, will be the probable beneficiary of the rules change because of the demographic makeup of the Democratic primary electorate. It would not be an oversimplification to say that the Democrats divide into three rough groups: progressives, centrists, and non-whites. African-Americans are by far the largest share of the last group, totaling nearly a quarter of all Democratic voters nationwide.

Democratic party nomination fights have followed a similar pattern since at least 1984. A candidate appealing to educated, more liberal Democrats challenges a relatively more centrist rival favored by the party establishment; the progressive wins most primaries and caucuses in New England, the West, and Wisconsin, while the centrist wins most of the remaining states. This outcome has historically doomed the progressive, from 1984 challenger Senator Gary Hart to Sanders himself, because there are more centrists than progressives or liberals.

The non-white vote, and especially the African-American vote, plays an underappreciated role in this process. Non-whites almost invariably back the more centrist candidate, providing that person with key support to defeat his or her more liberal challenger. African-Americans and Latinos backed Walter Mondale over Hart in 1984 and Bill Clinton over Paul Tsongas and Jerry Brown in 1992, delivering the nomination to both men in the process. They did so again in 2016, backing Hillary Clinton by margins as large as 80 percent, allowing her to win most Southern and Midwestern primary states as a result.

African-American voters do break from this mold, however, when a serious African-American candidate is running. Jesse Jackson won two states dominated by African-American Democrats in 1984 and swept six Southern states in 1988. Crucially, Barack Obama owed his nomination in 2008 to African-American voters, riding their overwhelming support to win seven Southern states and many delegates in Midwestern and Northeastern states with large, urban black populations. If not for their support, Obama would have merely been yet another failed progressive challenger.

Magic does not work in the real world and eliminating super delegates will not help sanders magically win the nomination
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
The real danger is if it goes past the first round madville Mar 2019 #1
Exactly customerserviceguy Mar 2019 #3
Sanders will be long gone by then. Garrett78 Mar 2019 #6
Insert whoever you want madville Mar 2019 #9
The Democrats haven't had a brokered convention since the 50s SFnomad Mar 2019 #45
My guess is that if Biden and anyone but Bernie were 1/2 but short of winning the nomination Blue_true Mar 2019 #57
Sanders will never be gone, if history serves. LongtimeAZDem Mar 2019 #10
2016 was a much different situation. Garrett78 Mar 2019 #12
As long as his followers are chanting his name, he will never stop. I hope I'm wrong, LongtimeAZDem Mar 2019 #20
Bernie is going to have more money than most madville Mar 2019 #46
Money doesn't equate to votes. Garrett78 Mar 2019 #48
The gathering for Harris of South Carolina sorority women showed the problem for Bernie. Blue_true Mar 2019 #58
Nevada caucuses will be held 11 days after NH and a week before SC. Garrett78 Mar 2019 #59
Thanks. For some reason, I thought that Nevada came after South Carolina. nt Blue_true Mar 2019 #60
He'll stay in Vermont as an Independent. MrsCoffee Mar 2019 #13
I was a pledged Clinton delegate to the national convention Gothmog Mar 2019 #26
The only path to the nomination for Bernie is to win the first round madville Mar 2019 #32
Yes. Keep out the progressive. roody Mar 2019 #35
How will this keep out Warren and Harris? lapucelle Mar 2019 #39
Good question, lapucelle. sheshe2 Mar 2019 #52
+1000! mcar Mar 2019 #53
Sanders didn't invent progressivism and he's not the only progressive candidate emulatorloo Mar 2019 #40
There's more than one progressive candidate in the race. TwilightZone Mar 2019 #51
not necessarily a mess floppyboo Mar 2019 #55
I just have to point out there's been some revisionist history regarding media coverage. Garrett78 Mar 2019 #2
Excellent post. Completely agree. Hortensis Mar 2019 #5
I didn't say he lost because of SDs... TCJ70 Mar 2019 #7
Claims have been made and would, in response to your OP, be made again that... Garrett78 Mar 2019 #8
Super delegates had nothing to do with sanders losing in 2016 Gothmog Mar 2019 #30
I DIDN'T SAY THEY DID. Not sure how many times I have to repeat that... TCJ70 Mar 2019 #31
Wow LongtimeAZDem Mar 2019 #11
There are many that report it as a tie in NH and as Hillary increasing her lead due to Super D's CentralMass Mar 2019 #14
I just Googled "MSNBC 2016 New Hampshire primary" and here's the first article I found: Garrett78 Mar 2019 #15
Here are a few from my google . CentralMass Mar 2019 #16
See my last post. I addressed the fact that there was talk of superdelegates, as there always is. Garrett78 Mar 2019 #17
To my point click on that first link. CentralMass Mar 2019 #19
I support the members of the CBC Gothmog Mar 2019 #25
If the Republicans had a superdelegate system, Trump would not be president LongtimeAZDem Mar 2019 #21
Rep. Cedric Richmond, the Congressional Black Caucus chair, blasts proposed superdelegate changes Gothmog Mar 2019 #24
Bingo. Facts trump wishes. MineralMan Mar 2019 #34
I saw this close up Gothmog Mar 2019 #37
I remember it well. MineralMan Mar 2019 #38
Good post. emulatorloo Mar 2019 #41
A minor improvement, but don't think it'll matter squat. Hortensis Mar 2019 #4
I'm Not Me. Mar 2019 #18
+1 LongtimeAZDem Mar 2019 #22
If the criticism is accurate... TCJ70 Mar 2019 #29
That's Just It Me. Mar 2019 #33
I disagree-I stand with the CBC on this issue Gothmog Mar 2019 #23
Absolutely Agree Me. Mar 2019 #43
Eliminating Super delegates will not help sanders but will help Harris Gothmog Mar 2019 #27
I didn't say that it will help him... TCJ70 Mar 2019 #28
I strongly disagree Gothmog Mar 2019 #36
Precisely Me. Mar 2019 #42
The elimination of undermocratic caususes is a great move Gothmog Mar 2019 #63
Get This Me. Mar 2019 #64
Your experience as a delegate has nothing to do... TCJ70 Mar 2019 #50
The reason you give for the change of the super delegate system is wrong Gothmog Mar 2019 #62
Super-delegates were not eliminated madville Mar 2019 #56
Dunno, the most "inaccurate" thing I saw last time was misrepresented Open Secrets data emulatorloo Mar 2019 #44
I am also glad. No more misleading predictions. floppyboo Mar 2019 #47
I don't get people denying it happened... TCJ70 Mar 2019 #49
Maybe they just read the subject line? floppyboo Mar 2019 #54
I agree with the superdelegate changes, caucuses should also be banned. radius777 Mar 2019 #61
I am glad that there will be fewer caucuses in 2020 Gothmog May 2019 #65
Man, you really dug this up. And yeah, that's also a good change. N/t TCJ70 May 2019 #66
Super delegates may be in play at the convention Gothmog May 2019 #67
Democratic Candidates Are Preparing For A Contested 2020 Convention -- By Courting Superdelegates Gothmog May 2019 #68
You can stop... TCJ70 May 2019 #69
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