Is Bernie 2.0 Eugene McCarthy redux?

[Gothmog]

22. Bernie Sanders is probably just another one-hit wonder

The Washington Post compares sanders to Santorum https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/02/19/bernie-sanders-is-probably-just-another-one-hit-wonder/?utm_term=.38aeb01c0e30

History shows this is likely to seriously hurt Sanders. CNN’s Harry Enten has compiled a list of every candidate who finished second in one year’s primaries and chose to run again the next time. He found that only six of those 13 people won the nomination in his next race, and only one of those (John McCain in 2008) became their party’s pick without leading the polls in February of the year before the election. The fact that Sanders runs second now is a strong indicator that he will not be the nominee in 2020.

Sanders seems most similar to two people who fared extremely poorly in their next efforts, Eugene McCarthy and Rick Santorum. McCarthy’s rise to fame was a lot like Sanders’s: He was an obscure senator who challenged a seemingly unbeatable leader (President Lyndon B. Johnson) and attracted young voters and liberals with his anti-Vietnam War stance. His lightning in the bottle forced LBJ to drop out in 1968, but when he tried to attract support on his own in 1972, a younger imitator, Sen. George McGovern (D-S.D.), attracted his voters with a broader left-wing and anti-war appeal. McCarthy finished fifth.

Santorum’s meteoric rise among Republicans in 2012 was similar. Languishing in the polls as late as January, the former senator from Pennsylvania rocketed to win the Iowa caucuses on the strength of religious conservatives who did not want to nominate Mitt Romney. He rode their backing to finish second, but when he tried again in 2016, religious conservatives looked for the fresh face. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and noted neurosurgeon Ben Carson thrashed Santorum among Iowa’s religious conservatives. The man who won the state in 2012 received less than 1 percent in 2016 and quickly dropped out.

Sanders’s chances are slim even if he regains progressive support from his competitors. While his backers contend that the Democratic establishment rigged the 2016 race in Clinton’s favor, the fact is Sanders lost because he got wiped out among African American voters. This is a long-standing problem for white, progressive challengers to the Democratic establishment. Since 1984, African American Democratic primary voters have either supported a serious African American candidate or the more moderate among the white candidates. Sanders would face the same challenge that doomed him in 2016 and has shown no indication that he has figured out how to meet it.