Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
3. Numbers are not popular around here
Sat Mar 16, 2019, 04:25 PM
Mar 2019

Subjectivity dominates, along with overreaction. Threads like this are destined to plunge. I started many numerical threads in my early years on this site. Eventually it simply wasn't worth it. Guys like jiacinto would respond and ask logical questions. Once he was gone I might as well have been sending an email to myself.

By far the most valuable reference on that site is the so-called Trumpometer on bottom right. It is an examination of how the economy and other numerical variables have fared since Trump has been in office. He has a positive number of +23 right now, which is less than half of Obama's net over 8 years but still it should serve as warning that Trump is hardly the easy out that many here are assuming and forecasting.

Bush ended up with a disastrous number over 8 years, which is the reason Obama and any Democrat would have cruised in 2008. Situational influence is everything. There is no way Obama manages that 52.9% in 2008 and carries states like Indiana and North Carolina without the lousy numbers Bush produced including the collapse late in 2008. I will always bemoan the lost opportunity with Hillary in 2008. She needed a situational boost, while Obama could have carried a more balanced environment like 2016.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Democratic Primaries»BTRTN 2020 Vision: Biden ...»Reply #3