Democratic Primaries
Showing Original Post only (View all)The Ground Has Shifted [View all]
Interesting Op-Ed over at TPM by Josh Marshall. From Marshall's concluding remarks, I think he sees (as I do) a head-to-head primary match ultimately between Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. This from the beginning of the piece:
For months now Ive been in a back and forth with readers over what many have wrongly interpreted as support for Joe Biden. Thats not really right. Its more like Biden Realism, which Id describe as a focus on Bidens apparent strengths despite many peoples wish that they werent strengths. The primary polls themselves are inherently volatile and heavily driven by perceptions of electability. Thats not the case with general election polls, which focus on voters who by definition dont care about electability. Those polls have been very, very consistent all year. Specifically, Joe Biden is the only Democrat who consistently bests President Trump by big margins. Most of the others are closer to a tie. The exception is Bernie Sanders who has usually been between Biden and the rest of the pack.
Some people claim those numbers mean next to nothing more than a year from the general election. Theyre wrong. When one candidate consistently does significantly better, it suggests they pull an electoral coalition that is different and larger than the others. The fact that things can change does not mean they will change or (more importantly) that they will change to conform to your hopes. But something has shifted over the last month.
Biden Realism. I like that. Seems spot on, too.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/prime/the-2020-dynamic-is-shifting
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden