HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Democratic Primaries (Forum) » The Ground Has Shifted
Undecided 44%
Elizabeth Warren20%
Joe Biden16%
Bernie Sanders10%
Pete Buttigieg5%

Wed Sep 4, 2019, 03:18 PM


The Ground Has Shifted [View all]

Interesting Op-Ed over at TPM by Josh Marshall. From Marshall's concluding remarks, I think he sees (as I do) a head-to-head primary match ultimately between Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. This from the beginning of the piece:

For months now Iíve been in a back and forth with readers over what many have wrongly interpreted as support for Joe Biden. Thatís not really right. Itís more like Biden Realism, which Iíd describe as a focus on Bidenís apparent strengths despite many peopleís wish that they werenít strengths. The primary polls themselves are inherently volatile and heavily driven by perceptions of electability. Thatís not the case with general election polls, which focus on voters who by definition donít care about ďelectability.Ē Those polls have been very, very consistent all year. Specifically, Joe Biden is the only Democrat who consistently bests President Trump by big margins. Most of the others are closer to a tie. The exception is Bernie Sanders who has usually been between Biden and the rest of the pack.

Some people claim those numbers mean next to nothing more than a year from the general election. Theyíre wrong. When one candidate consistently does significantly better, it suggests they pull an electoral coalition that is different and larger than the others. The fact that things can change does not mean they will change or (more importantly) that they will change to conform to your hopes. But something has shifted over the last month.

Biden Realism. I like that. Seems spot on, too.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

21 replies, 1608 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 21 replies Author Time Post
Reply The Ground Has Shifted [View all]
peggysue2 Sep 2019 OP
AtheistCrusader Sep 2019 #1
Eliot Rosewater Sep 2019 #2
peggysue2 Sep 2019 #4
DownriverDem Sep 2019 #9
Thekaspervote Sep 2019 #3
peggysue2 Sep 2019 #7
DownriverDem Sep 2019 #10
peggysue2 Sep 2019 #14
Tarheel_Dem Sep 2019 #5
Peacetrain Sep 2019 #6
peggysue2 Sep 2019 #8
Cha Sep 2019 #11
Kahuna7 Sep 2019 #12
Cha Sep 2019 #13
peggysue2 Sep 2019 #17
Cha Sep 2019 #18
Indykatie Sep 2019 #15
peggysue2 Sep 2019 #16
Cha Sep 2019 #19
Gothmog Sep 2019 #20
Gothmog Sep 2019 #21