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Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: As a black man [View all]Gothmog
(144,929 posts)130. Biden's Electability Advantage Will Be Hard to Shake Among Risk-Averse Democrats
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The most obvious is Bidens consistent strength in head-to-head polls against Trump. You can remind people all day long that these are unreliable indicators of how a general-election campaign will actually play out, but they wont be able to ignore them. And Bidens advantage here is significant. There is not a single poll in the RealClearPolitics database of 2020 trial heats between Biden and Trump in which Biden does not lead. His current lead in RCPs polling averages is an enormous 11.5 percent (Sanderss is 7.0 percent, and Warrens is 5.2 percent, but both have trailed Trump in some surveys).
A second factor making Biden Mr. Electable is the widespread belief among pundits and voters alike that, all things being equal, proximity to the political center is a general-election asset. The more we approach a three-candidate nominating contest in which Bidens only real challenge comes from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, the more Bidens relative moderation will become evident. That may hurt him with some primary voters, but it could at the same time enhance his perceived electability.
A third factor some analysts focus on is the practical ability to win voters the party lost in 2016 either to Trump or to third parties or to the living-room couch. Theres at best limited evidence that Biden is more popular than other Democrats in the much-chewed-over white working-class demographic (especially Obama-Trump voters). But he certainly talks about his focus on these voters a lot, which enhances the perception they are his people. And he certainly has conspicuous strength among African-American voters, whose fall-off in turnout was a big problem for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Biden does not look like a good bet to energize younger voters, but Trump might well do that for him...
Risk-averse is probably the most important term to remember in assessing Democratic voters heading toward 2020. They still dont entirely understand how Hillary Clinton managed to lose to Donald Trump in 2016, but they arent inclined to take anything for granted this time around. And that will make it difficult for candidates other than Biden to convince Democrats their other qualities are worth taking a bit of a risk on. Sure, Biden could in theory blow himself up with some high-profile gaffe that undermines the very premise of his candidacy. But thats not within anyone elses control.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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Some left-leaning figures (in the party, media, and ordinary lay people) are doing their damned best
LincolnRossiter
Sep 2019
#4
It doesn't matter who the nominee is, the rebups will be tearing them down
Thekaspervote
Sep 2019
#13
Joe Biden's childhood struggle with a stutter: How he overcame it and how it shaped him
Gothmog
Sep 2019
#124
You're in good company!! Jim Clyburn and John Lewis have publicly pretty much the same thing!
Thekaspervote
Sep 2019
#8
Why is it so hard for people to grasp that Biden isn't just the most 'electable' but, rather, the...
Cha
Sep 2019
#133
Indeed! Biden is the only candidate that leaders of the free world begged to run
Thekaspervote
Sep 2019
#15
The Corn Pop story Biden tells is true, and the relevant details have been confirmed.
highplainsdem
Sep 2019
#11
Well stated. And yes the AA voters are very savvy. They know a leader when they see one
Thekaspervote
Sep 2019
#17
Its always amazed me how people get away with denigrating an entire race & never get called on it
oldsoftie
Sep 2019
#40
Well said. It's unfortunate that a handful of DU'ers are doing their best to amplify the
emulatorloo
Sep 2019
#36
A larger "chunk" of people period, support Biden- black, white and a fair number of Latinos
Thekaspervote
Sep 2019
#52
Oh, please. There's no way you can reasonably infer that from what I've written
StarfishSaver
Sep 2019
#61
SC is the bellwether for the AA voter -the Ntl polls reflect the polls in SC
Thekaspervote
Sep 2019
#78
except that almost every critic of Biden's statements has stressed they don't believe he's a racist
bigtree
Sep 2019
#46
So you're not putting them on ignore? Why would you care if they stalked you if
ehrnst
Sep 2019
#120
"Biden's a racist" may be unspoken here, but there's been daily insinuation and innuendo from
emulatorloo
Sep 2019
#65
I'm AA & I'm right there with you. We obviously didn't learn a lot from 2016, when some people....
Tarheel_Dem
Sep 2019
#116
Biden's Electability Advantage Will Be Hard to Shake Among Risk-Averse Democrats
Gothmog
Sep 2019
#130