Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: In A Growing 2020 Field, Dems See Sanders Among Most Viable Contenders So Far [View all]Garrett78
(10,721 posts)First of all, any poll at this point is meaningless, especially one from Rasmussen. Secondly, 2016 was tailor-made for Sanders. The assumption that a large field benefits him is misguided--besides, the field will be down to no more than a handful after Iowa and New Hampshire. This time, Sanders won't be in a 1-on-1 race against someone who had been vilified for a quarter of a century. He was the only option for the anti-Clinton crowd. The only option for all those who had been conditioned over a period of decades to despise Hillary Clinton.
2nd in Iowa and 1st in New Hampshire propelled Sanders forward. I don't see him doing as well in those states in 2020, even as they remain 2 of the whitest and most rural states in the US (how wonderful that we give undue influence to a couple of states that don't remotely reflect our electorate). If he does relatively poorly in Iowa and doesn't win New Hampshire, it'll be quite embarrassing for him. So much so that I could see him dropping out before South Carolina, if not before Nevada.
And Super Tuesday, assuming he hasn't already dropped out, will be even worse for him than it was in 2016. He'll lose badly in nearly every contest that takes place on March 3, 2020. Not to mention South Carolina 3 days earlier. I've yet to see anyone explain why he should be expected to do much, much better than last time among POC and non-millennial women...if he doesn't, he's essentially done after New Hampshire.
Plus, there will be far fewer caucuses in 2020.
He'll find it much tougher to justify sticking around, and I suspect there will be quite a bit of pressure on him to leave the race (including pressure from within his camp).
That there are people who seriously think he's a contender, or even the favorite, is dumbfounding. Reality will provide a swift smack.
To top it off, he's hired a campaign co-chair who didn't support the Democratic nominee in 2016 and has said there's no real difference between the 2 parties. I bet Sanders will get asked about that at the first debate in June.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided