IPSOS/Reuters Poll: Biden 23%, Sanders 20%, Warren 15%, Bloomberg 8%, Buttigieg 7%

[Sloumeau]

13. It isn't really about Just Iowa and New Hampshire. The South is huge.

If a Democrat wins Iowa and/or New Hampshire, but does not do really well in the South, he often loses in the general election. That's because in order to do really well in the South, you have to have the Black vote. When Democrats do not have a strong enough support in the South, they often lose the election.

Carter and Clinton were both Southerners who killed in the South, and they both won in the General Election. Clinton didn't win either Iowa or New Hampshire, but that did not matter--he still won the nomation because of his big support in the South. Obama wasn't from the South, but he was Black, so he killed in the South too.

Do you know the last time the Democrats won a General Election with a liberal from New England? It was JFK in 1960, and that was before the Voting Rights Act was passed. After that happened, the racist White Democratic Dixiecrats fled the Democratic Party and became Republicans. Because of that, Nixon invoked his "Southern Strategy" in 1968 and the Republicans have been invoking it ever since. If the Democrats end up putting forth a nominee who is not really strong in the South, there is a good chance that that nominee will lose in the general. Fortunately, Biden is leading the polls nationwide and is very strong in the South.

In 1984, Walter Mondale won the nomination, but the only Southern state that he won in the primary was Florida. Most of the other Southern states were won by Gary Hart, with a few also being won by Jesse Jackson. Mondale got creamed in the General Election.

In 1988, Michael Dukakis only won Texas and Florida in the Primary. The other Southern states were won by Al Gore and Jesse Jackson. Dukakis lost in the General as well.

People are worrying a lot this year about exciting the youth vote when historically, exciting the black vote has been much more important. Hillary won a lot of the Southern States, but she still didn't get enough of the Black Vote--whether that was from voter suppression, or Russian dirty tricks, or whatever.

Do you know why Biden's strongest supporters are older Americans? Because a lot of us have watched all of these Presidential races, and we know what happened to folks like Michael Dukakis. The last thing we want to run is a White very Liberal guy from New England. We have been there, done that. At least Elizabeth Warren is a woman, and that could help balance things out. But a white very liberal guy from New England who is not really strong with Black support? To many of us Biden supporters, it is electoral suicide.