Rachel Bitecofer electoral college evaluation: Biden 289-Trump 181!

[Hortensis]

24. She's an elections forecaster, but a bit of an outlier,

who became famous after nailing the 2018 midterms results. She works from the direction of demographics of electorates in various areas and the results of previous elections rather than polling/survey data.

While checking for what she has to say, I came on this from Politico:

THE NEW RULES An Unsettling New Theory: There Is No Swing Voter

What if everything you think you know about politics is wrong? What if there aren’t really American swing voters—or not enough, anyway, to pick the next president? What if it doesn’t matter much who the Democratic nominee is**? What if there is no such thing as “the center,” and the party in power can govern however it wants for two years, because the results of that first midterm are going to be bad regardless? What if the Democrats' big 41-seat midterm victory in 2018 didn’t happen because candidates focused on health care and kitchen-table issues, but simply because they were running against the party in the White House? What if the outcome in 2020 is pretty much foreordained, too?

To the political scientist Rachel Bitecofer, all of that is almost certainly true, and that has made her one of the most intriguing new figures in political forecasting this year.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944

** Except for Sanders, which she saw as potentially disastrous.