Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: If Biden is nominee his odds of victory are 76% [View all]still_one
(92,061 posts)cycle. We have 20 candidates running. That is NOT a common occurance.
After Super Tuesday, you probably will lose half that, and have probably about 10 who will stay in for most of the remainder.
Democratic primaries are not winner take all, they are on a proportional basis.
I think the probability is pretty high for a brokered convention since the rules changes, and the number of candidates running.
The new rules mandate that SD refrain from voting on the first ballot unless a candidate has enough pledged candidates based on the primary results.
I think it is a pretty high water mark that one candidate will have enough pledged delegates after the first ballot.
One positive change from the reforms is that Caucuses are required to have absentee voting or to otherwise allow those who cannot participate in person to join in
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden