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Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: My gripe with Biden: he's the Safe choice. [View all]Gothmog
(145,046 posts)43. Electablity is a key factor in this race
We have to defeat trump. There is a very good chance that trump will win if we pick a weak or unsafe choice. There are posters who believe that we can nominate the most liberal/socialist nominee as possible and that candidate will easily win because everyone hates trump. It is their position that this is a historic opportunity to nominate someone would otherwise not be electable.
From Larry Sabato https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-economy-got-nixon-reagan-and-bush-reelected-it-could-do-it-for-trump-too/2019/04/23/b8920d34-65e6-11e9-a1b6-b29b90efa879_story.html?utm_term=.a35b315730d2
Ultimately, Trump may turn out to be at the mercy of conventional factors. In 2016, academic predictive models based on fundamentals such as the state of the economy suggested that Trump, or any other Republican candidate, was in position to win the election or come very close. This time, such models (once they become operative next year) could make Trump the early favorite despite his poor approval ratings.
Credit the powers of incumbency and a strong economy, the state of which may matter more to Trumps odds than nearly anything else. Incumbency and the economy, among other matters, ended up being more than enough for Nixon, Reagan and Bush. Despite Trumps unprecedented outlandishness, that same combination might work for him, too.
Credit the powers of incumbency and a strong economy, the state of which may matter more to Trumps odds than nearly anything else. Incumbency and the economy, among other matters, ended up being more than enough for Nixon, Reagan and Bush. Despite Trumps unprecedented outlandishness, that same combination might work for him, too.
Most POTUS are re-elected if the economy is good. Here is a scary study that shows this
Link to tweet
There are good reasons to doubt this study
Link to tweet
I do not believe that trump is assured of winning. If we want to win, Democrats need to nominate a strong nominee who is NOT too far out of the mainstream
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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"(like what women have to deal with in terms of sexual harassment, for example.)"
WeekiWater
Apr 2019
#2
What if none of it mattered? What if Comrade Cheeto cheats? What if Russia hacks us?
Shell_Seas
Apr 2019
#4
Will 2020 be the try something very different or go back to safe election year? n/t
PoliticAverse
Apr 2019
#5
We get it. A lot of people liked the old ways. But "normalcy" is not coming back ever.
marylandblue
Apr 2019
#41
I think its more about feeling safe as he is trusted, level headed & exactly the opposite of tRump.
yaesu
Apr 2019
#11
All you have to show me are polls showing Warren beating Trump by more than Biden does in...
louis c
Apr 2019
#13
Unfortunately DU limits what those who dislike Bernie can say about his character. So go ahead with
seaglass
Apr 2019
#55
I agree. We can't go back to the status quo before Trump. That is how we got him in the first
vsrazdem
Apr 2019
#34
Know what's NOT safe? Democracy. Threats in/outside this country don't call for more risk.
ancianita
Apr 2019
#22
he is a winning choice and that is all that matters. No other candidate can actually
beachbum bob
Apr 2019
#27
I have'nt been following Biden but if he will embrace some progressive ideas and distance
walkingman
Apr 2019
#29
I understand that it will take $$$ to beat the orange man but I never liked the corporate
walkingman
Apr 2019
#49
We usually look for outsiders in US Presidential elections, but not this time
DonaldsRump
Apr 2019
#37
I actually think Uncle Joe's promise of a return to normalcy has a good chance of carrying the day.
DemocratSinceBirth
Apr 2019
#44