Can Clinton win the GE with 59% of the AA vote?

[datopbanana]

Among White voters, McCain leads Obama by twelve and Clinton by eleven.

Among African-American voters, Obama dominates but Clinton attracts just 59% support.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[dkf]

1. Clinton will lose the AA vote by more than that if she kneecaps Obama

She's a GE loser.

Not only that, when the AA vote doesn't come out, she'll lose us a bunch of congressional seats. She's a double loser.

[JoFerret]

31. Obama can lose "the black vote" too.

This is a temporary romance.
And "the black vote' does not exist. Right now "it" is in a trance. That will not last.
People suffering most in this economy are drawn to Clinton. For good reason.

[dkf]

34. Hillary gets as much of the black vote as George Bush did.

[JoFerret]

42. Not in a GE match up with McCain in November though

THAT is what matters. And who knows by then.
Barack can be very helpful in that regard.

[dkf]

45. Make up your mind...you said Obama can't keep the AA vote, I tell you

Hillary wins as much of it vs. Obama as Bush won in the previous GEs...Now you are talking about Hillary vs. McCain.

Geez Louise.

And the AA vote is not going to vote for McCain, they are staying home and all our congresscritters who need their vote are going to suffer too.

Hillary is a Double Whammy for the Democratic party.

[goclark]

58. We will vote down ticket if it's not for Rendell like players

But we don't really count so it's OK anyway.:sarcasm:

[SoCalDem]

71. or they go and vote for congress and then get their ballot invalidated

because they leave the presidential spot BLANK...

=We need a None of the Above box on our ballots


Ladies and gentlemen, the president of the United States,
None of the Above :)

[cyndensco]

46. I disagree - damn, can you get more condescending??

"It" is not in a trance. "It" is not a temporary romance. "It" is as real for Obama as "it" was for Gore, Kerry, and the other clinton. With this "new" clinton, though, I think the romance is, has been, and will remain over....

[AquarianRealm62]

51. Disagree. The black vote for Obama will remain steadfast. Gore got 90%..Obama will exceed that

in the GE. McCain will get less than Bushs' take, in 2000 and 2004. Hillary won't do much better, if things keep going as they are..

[cali]

72. oh, please how elitest can you be?

the poor deluded blacks. they're just mesmerized by Svangali Obama, and if they know what's good for them they'll vote for Mistress HIlly. Fuck, that's so condescending. And bullshit about hilly being better than Obama for people suffering in this economy. There's nothing to support that.

[anonymous171]

2. McCain's going to try and move in on the AA community if HRC steals it

[goclark]

3. She has lost the AA vote by way more than that right now

I am African American and I don't know one person who would vote for her.
We will support the rest of the ticket.
We don't have to vote for McCain or Hillary if she steals the nomination.

[AquarianRealm62]

53. I'm AA too..and I'm with you..as are a whole bunch of other black folk I know and speak with

[cyndensco]

49. Yeah, he is trying to win our vote too

Having the resident negro hold his umbrella at the Lorraine Motel. What staging. :crazy:

I can't imagine him getting too many of us.

[goclark]

60. We are not that stupid

please don't even go there. :puke:

But not a dime, no time and no vote will we give to THE CLINTON DUO.

Why should we, what do we have to loose ~ the Supreme Court?
Down ticket will will support but not the Clinton's( and you do realize that they will be Co Presidents and that means that we would be voting for two evil non Democrats that eat their own party.

[suston96]

4. 59%? What about the rest of the AAs? They are voting for McCain? Or staying home?

....I don't think so.

"Support" and actual votes are two different things.

[GarbagemanLB]

5. If the nomination is handed to Hillary even though Obama won the most delegates...

you can be damned sure there will be a massive movement to stay home in November, and not just among AAs.

[LakeSamish706]

10. If she were to steal the nomination, I predict the end of the Democratic party....

There would be so many pissed off people the Democratic party may as well fold there tents.

[City Lights]

47. Agreed. nt

[cali]

7. She's alienated much of the AA community

and if they give her the nomination despite Obama having 100+ more pledged delegates and a lead in the popular vote, unless there's a thoroughly compelling reason, she simply won't get enough AA votes in the general to win. SDs know that.

[terrell9584]

63. and if she wins the popular vote

Everyone keeps claiming how impossible it is, but, if she can keep North Carolina in single digits, especially if it is under 5 (and I still maintain my belief that every undecided is really a Clinton voter), win Indiana, she will probably have 70% or higher margins in WV and KY, the Obama states won't have the votes to counter that, and if Hillary can do as well in Puerto Rico as she is expected to, it is entirely possible that she can carry the popular vote without Florida.

People seem to forget, WV and KY will be bigger Hillary margins than AR, and these are states where more people vote as Democrats, if just for local political reasons. If Obama has to have a substantial win in NC and at least a 6 point or better in IN, otherwise, she actually can make up the popular vote difference with blowouts in WV, PR and KY. It might be a lousy way to win a primary, but it is entirely possible.

Whoever had that map that said Obama was going to win Kanawha County has lost it. Just based on taking the racial composition of Philly, it seems as if Obama probably lost the white vote there by a few points, and I mean the city itself, just based on basic demographics. I'd be interested to know how he did in NE Philly.

Just because Kanawha is urbanized doesn't mean it's going for Obama, not every urbanized area has went for him. He got killed in New York, if you just look at demographics, is possible that he lost the white vote in Boston itself, he lost Allegheny, he lost Los Angeles, he lost San Antonio and El Paso, and the trouncing in El Paso was bad. In the non-binding FL primary, he lost in Palm Beach and Broward, and Palm Beach was real bad for him. Almost all the FL counties he picked up were counties in which more primary voters were black, and in counties where the GOP actually controls county offices.

He lost Youngstown and Toledo. He lost Providence (not that I think R.I. was ever a danger). Just because an area is urbanized doesn't mean it will support Obama. If anything, I'll say Clinton will probably win all of southwestern West Va, and by big margins. That's just the way it is.

This thing ain't over by a long shot, and even if she lost both NC and IN, if it was close enough, it is theoretically possible for her to still make up the margin without FL, once again concentrating on PR, WV and KY.

It's not over at all

[AquarianRealm62]

64. We don't award the nod as nominee based on popular vote.

[terrell9584]

66. But the point is

If a rationale has to be made for denying Obama the nom, it will probably be a lot more accepted if she did have the popular vote, because the general public, even many moderate Obama supporters, will buy the argument about caucuses vs primaries, cause many of them probably wouldn't show up for a caucus when you explained to them what it was, either because they couldn't, or because they don't want to put forth that much effort.

And if neither can reach 2025, pledged delegates is a moot point, and then things like pop vote come into play.

[AquarianRealm62]

73. Come on don't delude yourself. Even if she eeks out the pop vote..all hell is going to break loose!

The media will make sure of that..people's attention spans are very short, they aren't going to sit and listen to "primary vs caucus!" reasoning,

The young people will not vote for her in droves.
Black people will not vote for her in droves.

The Dem party will teeter on a precipice of destruction and McCain will win.

I don't see anyway this turns out good. Again, the rules speak of most delegates, not popular vote.


Mark my words, it will not turn out good, should this be the road traveled. Don't under estimate people's ability to say "fuck it" my vote doesn't matter anyway.

[terrell9584]

81. The problem with that argument is the fact that

in 1974, before he apologized, Wallace won the primary for re-election, even as he lost in Black Belt counties.

On general election day, black voters in the black belt still came out and they pulled the Democratic lever for the entire ticket, including Gov. Wallace.

Wallace apologized in 1978, but still, animous remained in the black community. In the 1982, he lost several of the heavily black counties. The counties which he won were the ones in which the local black political establishment was supporting him. He won a close race in the runoff. And what happened when he was the nominee, in the general election, once again, black voters turned out in large numbers to elect the entire ticket, including giving Gov. Wallace his fourth term

Based on this experience, if Hillary is to get the nomination, I expect her to pull the same margins in the Black Belt as Wallace did in 1982

[AquarianRealm62]

86. I'm here to tell you this ain't the same as wallace. I tell you this as a black woman that speak to

a great deal of black people on a daily basis. Not just in my home state but around the county. I have family and friends across this nation. I belong to two sororities, and a few other "black membership" associations. It's not that some black people won't vote for her, but I'm telling you she will not garner a large number like Gore and Kerry. Please visit some black message boards or online AA groups and you will see what I'm speaking of..this is indeed a serious matter..and the shit will hit the fan. Believe you me.

It's real. Agagin, this is not about Wallace...and Hillary doesn't believe she or Bill has done anything wrong, so who's going to apologize and for what? Again, if you don't think the Democratic Party will be tattered, torn and left in shreds, you are under estimating how black people feel about the huge importance of the first viable black person for the presidency. Also, that doesn't include the number of white voters and young voters that will be deillusioned and pissed off at the process should she get it by not following the rules of the party..which we know is pledged delegates--which we know-she can't overcome.

[terrell9584]

87. How can you belong to two sororities at the same time?

As someone who also did that sort of thing from the male end, you generally take a pledge in which you won't ever join another similar organization. Also, the fact that most organizations of that such have rivalry with each other.

And all I know is, here we have ballots in which if you don't vote a straight ticket, you have to spend a cumbersome amount of time filling the thing out for each office. 80% of blacks voted straight Democratic, and on my own estimation based on population, probably more than a third of whites voted straight Republican. It's easier than splitting a ticket and we also know that a majority of all votes in the county came from straight ticket voters.

Therefore, black political organizations here will work overtime to make sure everyone votes a straight ballot, and I suspect it will be that way in most of the country. Many politcal machines tie their success to straight ticket voters, and they'll make sure that this presidential brouhaha doesnt threaten that

[AquarianRealm62]

89. I belong to my college sorority and another local black women's sorority...solitary pledges are

for juveniles. We are grown people, both of them actually do a great deal in the community, so why should one bar me from joining another. It's about helping the youth, not about some stupid exclusive "you can't join another sorority" pledge. We don't have wild beer parties, or frat bratwurst parties. At this stage in life, it's about serious business. But, I suspect, you may not know much about the nature of mature black sororities and/or how they work within the community.

Anyway, you keep dreaming if you think, black people are simply going to fall in line in droves to support Hillary, if the first viable black person for the presidency is pushed aside based on the popular vote, and contrary to DNC pledged delegate rules!

Keep dreaming!

[okasha]

88. Who do you think will win if Obama is the nominee

and has to rely on the African American and youth votes?

Does the name McGovern ring a bell? How about 49-state blowout?

[AquarianRealm62]

91. He's not only garnering the AA and youth vote. He's doing better among white voters than Hillary

is doing among black voters and youth voters. Plus, her unfavorable ratings are off the chart...and I predict they'll get worse..if she wins the nod with the BS popular vote.

[okasha]

98. That's rather tortured reasoning.

You might have a point if AA numbers and white numbers were about equal. They're not. Winning 90% of 10% won't get him nearly as far as winning 50% of 75%.

The much-touted youth vote, as Dr. Dean and Senator Kerry both found to their sorrow, is notoriously unreliable. Here's a story for you: my county sent all 51 of its delegates to the state convention for Hillary because Obama's delegates didn't reach the 15% threshold. 53 were necessary, and they only had 44. Yet when I spoke to my county chair a week after the precinct caucuses, with several of our large, affluent precincts not yet counted, Obama already had 59 delegates. So at least 15 Obama supporters simply did not show up at the county convention, and I can almost guarantee they were mostly if not all college students. Their absence made for a unanimous Hillary delegation.

Meantime, how nice to know that you consider democracy BS. Let the commoners eat arugula!

[AquarianRealm62]

100. Yep, that's me...anti-democracy..lmao! .thank you..no worries though..she won't get the nod..its

all moot.

She won't win the primary, or the general.

C'est La Vie, huh?

[okasha]

102. Avec Obama, c'est le president McCain.

n/t

[AquarianRealm62]

107. LOL Hillary doesn't win...McCain wins automatically huh?

Please explain how he does it and why do you feel it is a definitive thing?

Sia onesto!

[cali]

68. there's a slight chance that hillary can win the popular vote

but it's not likely. Yes, she'll win big in WV and KY- and we know what a good part of the reason will be- but Obama will win by at least 10 in NC. Just as PA was a good demographic fit for Clinton, so is NC for Obama. And he'll win by at least 10 in Oregon, and win big over her in SD and MT. And there's no guarantee that Hillary will win big in PR. Obama did not get killed in NYC. He did quite well- far better than Hillary did in Illinois.

And Obama has won plenty of white voters- something hillfans are loath to admit. He won the VT primary by 21 pts. Vermont has a black population of .07. He won ME, CO, N.D., MN, Wisconsin, etc. He doesn't win just urban areas

And it really is essentially over unless Obama implodes. The SDs simply aren't going to risk destroying the party for years to come to give the nomination to a candidate who's a 100+ votes back in pledged delegates. And it would severely damage the party.

[AquarianRealm62]

74. I agree. He would have to implode. Other than that, he will be the nominee..

[terrell9584]

78. NC by 10?, let me explain the basics of Southern politics to you

Most rural counties in the South are still under one party Democratic control at the courthouse level. In Southern states where they register by party, Democrats have overwhelming majorities, majorities they never seem to reach in generals. Many people still refer to themselves as Democrats because calling themselves a Republican would be an admission that Lincoln was right, and to a lot of Southerners, that's unacceptable.

I suspect that this claim that North Carolina is a demographic fit for Obama is based on the idea that because there are wealthy Northerners in the Triangle and a 22% black population that this is somehow Obama country, and guaranteed to be so. I heard many people claim that Obama automatically had Allegheny in PA too, and we saw how that turned out.

I'll use Alabama to explain. Alabama is blacker than N.C., with four major metropolitan areas. Now, Obama won the Alabama primary. The thing about Alabama is, as far as I know, it is the only Southern state where there is no by party registration. Municipal elections are non-partisan and in all other elections, when you vote in a primary, you declare the day of. Rural counties are by in large controlled by the Democratic Party. Counties which Bush won by 60-70% will have no one declaring in a Republican Primary when countywide offices are on the ballot, because everyone knows that countywide offices are decided in the Democratic Primary, and by converse, in many of the state's higher population counties, especially counties with a fair number of non Southern natives, local offices go to the Republican primary winners, and in these counties, no white voter will declare as a Democrat in a local office primary because to do so is a waste of a vote. It is for this reason that you saw the phonemenon in TX of where 75% Bush counties had no one voting in the GOP primary, because local offices were on the ballot and voting a GOP ballot would have taken away their meaningful vote for that.

In the Presidential primary, you saw the highest Democratic turnout in the higher population counties this decade, because, no local offices were on the ballot and so many white Democrats who had voted in the Republican primaries two years ago (to the point where in every high population county, the primary turnout mirrored racial composition). By the same token, in many of the rural counties, you saw Republican turnout in excess of 40% of the registered voters, something that NEVER happens in a primary where local offices are on the ballot, because once again, in those counties, a Republican Primary ballot is a wasted one. Just look at the turnout differentials between 2004, when local offices were up for decision, same with 2006, and the results from this year, when it was just a presidential vote and delegates. Huckabee took away a fair number of votes that would have went to Clinton if it had been a conventional primary. In a conventional Alabama primary, Clinton would have won, because Obama sympathetic whites in urban areas would have cast a GOP ballot and rural whites who might have more GOP sympathies would still have voted Democratic as always because things such as County Commission and District Attorney were on the ballot.


Now how does this apply to NC. Look at the gubernatorial map from 2000, illustrates it perfectly, east-west divide, the west for the Republicans, the east for the Democrats. And North Carolina has broke along those lines since Reconstruction, the geographical inverse of Tennessee. And traditionally, Tennessee has a lot in common with North Carolina. In many of these eastern counties, almost everyone will be called a Democrat, because not doing so means they forfeit their vote for sheriff. And, despite a brief uptick for the GOP in the 70s and 80s, by in large, the Democrats remained statewide office dominance in a way in which they havent in other states. North Carolina is a Democratic state by every metric except Presidential performance and U.S. Senate representation.

It is not Virginia. Obama owed his margin in Virginia to the fact that the Washington suburbs constitute more than 35% of the population of the state, and he dominated there, and these were areas where traditional Southern politics gave away a long time ago, and where many local officials lack even a plantation style Southern accent. This is not true for North Carolina. Don't assume Raleigh is NOVA just because there are tech companies there.

NC will be a tougher state than everyone thinks, even the Obama campaign knows this, it is why they desperately try to lower the expectations every day, because right now, if he doesn't score a 15 point blowout, it is a media draw.

And remember 20% of NC primary voters say they are undecided. Where are they going. My hunch is 70/30 Clinton.

N.C. won't be a cakewalk for either campaign, and it is more of a cross of TN, SC and southern VA than it is the Virginia that so overwhelmingly chose Obama. And remember that Edwards has his political base where Obama needs to do his best. If Edwards decided to do a behind the scenes move, the one place where it might matter would be the Triangle, he is a Triangle lawyer, a Triangle pol and he lives in the Triangle.

I'm not passionate for either candidate, I'll vote for the nominee, but I think all the calls saying this is a done deal are shortsighted. And it is why I try to be respectful as much as I can when I debate here (even if a lot of people have no interest in that)

[Barack_America]

staying home.

no doubt about that.

[goclark]

99. We will not stay home we will vote down ticket

and we will support our Senators etc. that have been civil.

We will not give money,vote or volunteer for the Chintons.

[Colobo]

113. Whatever they decide to do, Bill has given them a good reason to do so.

[Yukari Yakumo]

6. No.

Without the AA vote, she'd likely lose PA and MI.

[FrenchieCat]

9. And Ohio, and Illinois.........and possibly New Jersey and New York.

[DrDan]

8. I just cannot understand only 59% of AA vote

how in the world could the other 41% vote gop - I do not understand that.

[LakeSamish706]

12. No one said they would vote GOP, they just would not vote at all. n/t

[cyndensco]

50. Which is so against everything I have grown up with.

My parents, grandparents, everybody, instilled to us how important it is to vote. So many people fought and died to ensure our right to vote. It would really be difficult sitting one out - especially one so important -but, right now, i can not imagine voting for clinton, even holding my nose doing so. And mccain - no way.

[FrenchieCat]

14. Since the media is promoting Racism,

and it appears to be cool and in style to be prejudiced in this nation in the 21st century, guess the AA community is simply reacting to that.

Since we have been told that racism was really not an issue in today's America, and that things were in fact so good for Black folks, Affirmative Action needed to be dismantled, many Americans asserted.

Guess the AA community is reassessing the myth that they had been sold by a "liberal" media, and even more misleading, the Democratic party.

[Orangepeel]

25. might vote GOP, might stay home, might vote Green

but if it is perceived that Democratic superdelegates took the nomination away from a Black man who had earned it because they think white people won't vote for him and/or his Black preacher is too radical, then Clinton and all the Democrats downticket better not be counting on the African American vote to win.

[ChinaDoll]

44. It's rubbish...

clinton gets 90% against mcCain....easily

[AquarianRealm62]

55. you're wrong. absolutely wrong.

[NJObamaWoman]

11. AA's don't matter. Its the Latinos that matter to Team Clinton. I WONT vote for Clinton

I wont vote for McCain either. If people come in to tell me that I'm a fool than so be it. I'm silently protesting against racist. If White women, latinos, working class/blue collar, and elderly are so important than they get out and vote to support Mrs. Clinton. My young, black, educated behind can stay home and become an independent.

[kwenu]

37. Don't let the media garbage get to you. Perception is reality until reality shows up.

Reality always shows up in the end.

[Nedsdag]

38. McCain will split the Latino vote.

Hillary needs every black vote. It doesn't look like she'll get it if she steals the nomination.

[KaptBunnyPants]

13. The bigger problem is how many people would just stay home, but no.

More than 1/3 of black voters voting Republican? Can any Democrat overcome that?

On edit: Ok, the ~40% includes people staying home. That sounds a little more reasonable, but I imagine the number will be quite higher if Hillary steals the nomination.

[NJObamaWoman]

17. This is McCain's time. If his people were smart they would make

in roads with the black community. He has plenty of evidence to blast the Clintons starting with Nevada and the fact that the Clintons sailed on the "Latinos wont vote for a black person". I'm still angry about that and I wont support a candidate who tolerates that crap.


All McCain has to do is hammer away at Clinton who is trying to continue the Black and Brown divide.

[cyndensco]

54. I don't think mccain can hammer anything away at clinton to get my vote.

But, i don't think hillary can either.

[Yukari Yakumo]

118. He is...

Why do you think he wants to nix the Wright ads?

[Maribelle]

15. As Dean did for Kerry for three months after Kerry won the nomination, Dean said today ....

it will be the responsibility of the one that did not win the nomination to go about encouraging their supporters to vote for the nominee. Hillary and Bill have already said they would do this. But what have Mr. and Mrs. Obama said?

[jefferson_dem]

19. Well, "winning" the nomination and being the nominee are not necessarily the same thing.

Whoever gets the most pledged delegates "wins" the nomination. If the nominee is somebody different, there will be and should be "hell to pay".

[NJObamaWoman]

27. That hell will be a protest. If people don't think that the black community

is tired and they are watching whats going on than they are stupid. If something nasty happens and Obama gets robbed than more black voices will be heard. Mark my words. The Sean Bell trial has opened many peoples eyes.

[Maribelle]

40. Obama is not going to get robbed.

Stop with the hate mongering, would you please.

[AquarianRealm62]

92. Nominating Hillary based on the popular vote is robbery,..its outside the stated rules

[Maribelle]

97. Hillary will not receive the nomination based on the popular vote.

[AquarianRealm62]

101. You're right. She won't get it period. Not on pop vote, PD or SDs! So the discussion is moot!

[Maribelle]

39. No, whomever gets the most delegates. Those are the rules.

[NJObamaWoman]

23. Wrong its the Clintons that have to do that. Kerry didn't offend a community

the way the Clintons have. If they use Obama as some token black than that will seal it for me. The Clintons did it and they have to work hard to get us back.

[Maribelle]

36. The Clintons have not offended a community.

That Axelrod and his dirty race card would be highly debunked by many, should Hillary win the nomination. And even if she doesn't. Take Mayor Nutter for instance.

[datopbanana]

56. BO and Jesse Jackson only won SC cause they're black isn't offensive?

[Maribelle]

93. That's not what Clinton said, however. And he talked about Jesse early in the day, before Obama won

Your facts are not correct at all.

[AquarianRealm62]

59. She'll lose the black vote in the GE..many I've spoken to will stay home..

[Maribelle]

94. If she gets the nomination, it seems like Obama might campaign for her, as Dean did.

Strangely, Hillary is one of the strongest supporters of the ISSUES that are important to African Americans. Health Care for each and every person, the cancellation of NCLB and the institution of education programs that will really work for children, pre-k programs for all children, federal supplements for teachers, jobs, the economy...

[AquarianRealm62]

104. Obama can campaign for her but it doesn't guarantee blacks will vote for her..sorry

[cyndensco]

67. How can you attribute Axlerod with the "dirty race card?"

Obama and his campaign are way to smart to have TRIED to inject race into this race. This IS America - a black man would be foolish to run for anything as a black man.

And, yes, the clintons have offended me.

[Maribelle]

95. Axlerod played the race card in Massachusetts for Patrick, in Philadelphia against Nutter

and back in his Chicago days, Axlerod used similar techniques.

[cali]

76. People who use tactics to appeal to race divisions like the filthy

Clinton campaign, always say the offended party is just playing the race card. hillypoo used the southern strategy. Obama did NOT play the race card. And if you think she'd win the general if she gets it handed to her without having either the pd or pop vote, you're delusional. And if you don't think the AA community is offended by the disgusting tactics of hilly and billy, wake up.

[Maribelle]

96. The Clinton campaign did nothing of the sort. The AA community is offended ....

because those out to thwart Hillary's campaign have truly passed out disinformation. The list is long and growing.


The was nothing whatsoever racist about Bill Clinton calling Obama's claim that he was 'always against the Iraq war' in light of Obama's true fluctuating record on Iraq, as a "Fairy Tale". If there is some hidden meaning to the term "Fairy Tale" I am truly not aware of it.

That's just one of many. Calling Bill Clinton a racist is about as far from the truth as you can get.

[AquarianRealm62]

105. What was the purpose of Bill bringing up Jesse Jackson in SC? What point was he trying to make?

[cyndensco]

65. I would think Obama would encourage his supporters to support the Democratic nominee

But, if she does steal it, I do not think I would be any more likely to support her than I am now.

[jefferson_dem]

16. The backlash she deserves.

Talk about unelectable.

[goldcanyonaz]

18. And, the whites? Or, who cares?

Obama, obviously, yes obviously gets the black vote. How many women will stay home if Hillary is not on the ticket?

[datopbanana]

21. "McCain leads Obama by twelve and Clinton by eleven"

[kmsarvis]

24. If Clinton had a lead in delegates then..........

women would have a good reason to be pissed off if the SDs handed the nomination to Obama.

[NJObamaWoman]

33. you mean WHITE women dont you. Please stop making it seem

as if all women are for HRC. I'm a BLACK woman and I am NOT for Hilary. So make the correction.

[Kber]

43. This white woman also voted for Obama

as did my mother and sister (also white women).

I believe that while Clinton carries an advantage in women overall, Obama doesn't actually alientate as many women as Clinton does has withe the AA community.

[kmsarvis]

20. If the SDs hand the nomination to Clinton .........

WE ARE FUCKED !!!!!

[suston96]

22. Hillary has not "alienated" the AA voters. They simply have their own choice.

The question should be: If Obama is not the nominee will you support the actual nominee?

[NJObamaWoman]

30. Hell no because the nominee offended me

[AquarianRealm62]

61. The only way Hillary gets the nod is if it is stolen or the voice of the people is overruled by the

SD's...so no, she can't count on my vote. Fair and square is the deal..here.

[JoFerret]

26. Ohio AA's went for Bush in 2004

according to today's NYTimes. (Not all of them of course - but enough to make a difference. issue: social conservatism and gay marriage.

But facts like that are worth remembering. the "black" vote is not a simple block. It's as complex as every other group except during this brief identity romance with Obama. That too can fracture. It has already.

[datopbanana]

29. Thank you for illuminating how important the AA vote is in a critical state

[JoFerret]

41. Yep - they need a good candidate like Clinton

As we all do.

[cyndensco]

69. "They need a good candidate like clinton..."

:puke:

[AquarianRealm62]

106. agreed

[JoFerret]

108. Thanks for agreeing.

.

[onenote]

79. and do women need a candidate like McCain?

One who will try his damndest to appoint the SCOTUS justice who will cast the deciding vote to overturn Roe v Wade? Who will undoubtedly vote whenever possible to further narrow protections against discrimination not only on the basis of race, but also gender?

Will women decide McCain is their guy if Obama is the candidate?

[JoFerret]

109. That's exactly why we must work flat out for

Clinton to be our nominee. She can win the electoral college votes to ensure women's rights and all our rights.

Think electoral college.

[onenote]

119. either one can win. and either one can lose.

If the Democrats are do not unite, it doesn't matter who the candidate is.

[kwenu]

28. Unless Hillary is running as an independent, I don't get this question.

[Yossariant]

32. Yes. Yes, she can. Link:

Electoral Votes: Clinton 291 McCain 237
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Apr27.html

:bounce:

[Kber]

35. Didn't she used to poll at about 50% vs Obama?

Anyone remember that?

And then I guess someone in the Clinton campaign must have decided that there were other, more valuable demographics and rather than try to at least maintain a nuetral posture to the AA comminity, that they would use our latent "antipithy to people not like ourselves".

[mrreowwr_kittty]

52. More than that. She was at over 60% in many polls a year ago.

Obama simply wasn't a known quantity and the Clintons were highly regarded in the AA community. Black candidates don't automatically get the black vote, despite what some people would have us believe.

[bowens43]

48. HIllary isn't going to be in the GE n/t

[ej510]

62. Hillary would dominate the latino vote against McCain.

But black people are pissed right now at the Clintons. The Clintons need to stop. Hillary cannot win the Florida with a poor turnout in Dade County. She also cannot win Missouri without St.Louis and Kansas City. She cannot win PA without Philadelphia. She cannot win Ohio without a strong supporting cast in Cleveland, and Cincinatti. If Blacks stay home that puts Maryland into play. If Hillary eins legitimately, then she will good the solid support that all democrats get from blacks if not it could be worse than 59%. Hillary needs to talk to black voters in Indiana and North Carolina and I mean now! She needs to begin the reconciliation.

[AquarianRealm62]

75. She may lose some of that Latino vote to McCain..remember he was pushing for Comp Imm Refor, his

name was on the Bill..so I think he could pull some Latinos from her..with that loss and the loss of the youth and the black vote in chunks..she's doomed.

[onenote]

80. he has basically reversed course on immigration, and the GOP platform will be very harsh on the issu

mark my words.

Its one of the issues that puts McCain between a rock and a hard place. If there is one thing you can take to the bank its that his VP candidate will be an immigration hard liner.

And that fact won't be lost on Latino voters.

[frickaline]

57. uum I think you might have missed a few minorities in your list there

last I checked, we had more than just Caucasian and African-American voters.

[cali]

77. AAs are the most loyal and most strategically important minority

block in the dem coalition, and Caucasions aren't a minority. Dems almost always lose the white vote.

[frickaline]

83. So all the other minorities added together ....don't count?

I'm just saying that seems like a pretty big number to ignore.

[SoCalDem]

70. She won't GET 59%..she'd be LUCKY to get 20%

[nsd]

82. In the very unlikely event that Clinton is able to get ...

the superdelegates to give her the nomination, John McCain would be well advised to make a serious play for the black vote. For years African-Americans have been complaining (rightly) that they're taken for granted by Democrats because they've been such a reliably Democratic vote. A Clinton nomination would be the ultimate proof of that sentiment and would create an opening for McCain.

I doubt he's smart enough to take advantage of that opening, but if he does, Clinton would be in serious trouble. I'm not saying McCain could win the black vote outright, but, by making himself as unobjectionable to African-Americans as possible, he might at least be able to persuade enough voters in Cleveland and Philadelphia to stay home on election day to deny Clinton Ohio and Pennsylvania. And that would be that.

[Skidmore]

90. Our family will vote Dem for downticket races, and will write in Obama

for president or leave it blank. We need to give some thought to who to write in for VP. I'd like to see a coordinated protest vote of that nature. I'd rather vote for someone I believe in than for someone I don't trust to represent the best of democratic values--including practicing inclusion and standing against bigotry.

[crankychatter]

84. The "Bottom Line" is she can't win the Primary in a way AA's will perceive as fair NOW

Not just African-Americans of course.

Yes, the SD's may vote their conscience, but Obamas Delegate and popular vote lead are insurmountable now... if the SDs sway it to Clinton, it's a done deal.

I know this has been said ad nauseum.

What I'm saying is, this isn't about a disastrous, greater later... it's about today.

What is SO frustrating is that like so many Democratic Primary races in the past... we are getting the most pro-war candidate shoved down our throats.

This isn't even about Race and Gender. Our reliance on the MSM; owned and editorially influenced, largely by WAR PROFITEERS... has been a foreign policy nightmare, for a very long time.

With WW3 looming... we should be looking at this issue; planning for the worst while hoping for the best.

[Crooked Moon]

85. "Can Clinton win the GE with 59% of the AA vote?"

given that we've elected exactly 2 democrats to the presidency in the past 40 years, i would say, empirically, that, yes, it's possible to win the white house without overwhelming black support.

[suston96]

110. 59%? Hell, yeah....! Do the math. If she gets the same numbers from the other.....

.....demographics as she got in the primaries she will trounce McCain.

Better do some math. How many AAs are there in this country of voting age? Maybe 20 million? Spread out over 50 states? And in which states are they really a factpr?

If 59% of them vote for Clinton that would be just fine.

[book_worm]

114. you obviously don't understand how elections are won

A Democratic candidate to win a general election has to win at least 80% or more of the African-American vote and turnout has to be reasonably high. For instance, in '04 Kerry got 88% of AA vote and still lost the popular vote and Gore got 90% and won by 550,000. A Democrat couldn't win a general election if they got only 59% of the African-American vote.

[suston96]

120. Sorry, don't agree. 59% of the AA vote could be enough if the rest of the voters show up.

AAs are not a large enough segment of the populations in most blue states to make a difference in the general. In red states, mostly in the south, they are a large segment but will make no difference in the general, as they did in the primaries.

And again, that 59% is preference and not actually votes.

I repeat. the question to the AAs should have been: will you vote for the white nominee if she wins the nomination?

[SOS]

121. Neither Carter or Clinton would have won without black votes.

Clinton got 43% in 1992 and Carter got 50.1% in 1976.
Without the black vote our last win would have been 44 years ago.

Can Clinton win with 59% of the black vote?
No way in hell.

[BlooInBloo]

103. lawl

[annie1]

111. if she puts Bo on the ticket then it will be a lot higher than 59%

[AquarianRealm62]

112. He's in the lead and will be the nominee. He's not going on her ticket.

[book_worm]

115. well, after the campaign she ran I doubt Obama would want to be on her ticket

and I doubt he will want her on his.

[annie1]

116. then it would just go to show that he's full of shit aboiut wanting to change things.

[Liberal Gramma]

117. I don't know. Where's she running?