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snot (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 03:58 AM Original message |
Concern re- exit polls in the U.S. -- |
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EST (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 04:10 AM Response to Original message |
1. Expect it. |
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dchill (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 04:12 AM Response to Original message |
2. They were already rigged... |
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Lasher (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 04:13 AM Response to Original message |
3. Exit pollsters were on a short leash in 2004, probably 2000 also |
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Febble (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 05:07 AM Response to Reply #3 |
7. Please check your |
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Lasher (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 05:46 AM Response to Reply #7 |
8. Exit poll/election result discrepancies should be ignored? |
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Febble (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 06:12 AM Response to Reply #8 |
9. Did I say that? |
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Febble (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 07:54 AM Response to Reply #9 |
14. Correction |
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southwood (74 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 08:44 PM Response to Reply #7 |
22. Count? |
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Febble (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jan-28-06 05:22 AM Response to Reply #22 |
25. Sure, the exit pollsters got the UK |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jan-28-06 11:23 AM Response to Reply #25 |
27. Question |
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Febble (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jan-28-06 11:45 AM Response to Reply #27 |
28. Pre-election polls |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jan-28-06 12:07 PM Response to Reply #28 |
31. What were the percentages, from your recollection? |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jan-28-06 12:24 PM Response to Reply #28 |
32. Never mind...I found it. |
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Febble (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jan-28-06 03:06 PM Response to Reply #32 |
33. That can't be right |
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Febble (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jan-28-06 03:18 PM Response to Reply #32 |
34. OK, I've found something |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jan-28-06 04:38 PM Response to Reply #34 |
35. So that means the pre-election polls actually exaggerated |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jan-28-06 10:02 PM Response to Reply #35 |
36. totally different circumstances |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jan-29-06 12:13 AM Response to Reply #36 |
39. I would imagine whatever caused the bias would determine if |
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Febble (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jan-29-06 05:30 AM Response to Reply #39 |
40. I think, in the UK in 1992 |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jan-29-06 02:00 PM Response to Reply #40 |
43. Do you think it was the same bias, or a different bias, |
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Febble (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jan-29-06 02:55 PM Response to Reply #43 |
47. I am not a political scientist |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jan-30-06 01:16 AM Response to Reply #47 |
51. So you have no idea whether exit poll response bias would show |
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Febble (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jan-30-06 04:09 AM Response to Reply #51 |
52. My guess |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jan-30-06 08:59 AM Response to Reply #52 |
54. I'm a very poor Anglophile |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jan-29-06 02:07 PM Response to Reply #39 |
44. as Febble says, trend confuses the issue |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jan-29-06 02:21 PM Response to Reply #44 |
46. If you have any historical basis for saying the two polls would not |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jan-29-06 04:30 PM Response to Reply #46 |
48. sorry, I'm not sure I understand the question |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jan-30-06 01:07 AM Response to Reply #48 |
50. OK...I'll try again. |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jan-30-06 08:49 AM Response to Reply #50 |
53. OK, so I guess my answer was |
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applegrove (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 04:21 AM Response to Original message |
4. Exit polls were off in places other than diebold. Exit polls have been |
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snot (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 04:41 AM Response to Reply #4 |
5. Why dump exit polls when they appear more accurate than the vote tally? nt |
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applegrove (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 04:54 AM Response to Reply #5 |
6. Tomato, tomay-to. We don't know. |
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Febble (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 06:22 AM Response to Reply #5 |
10. What makes you think they are more accurate? |
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Kip Humphrey (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jan-28-06 12:03 PM Response to Reply #4 |
30. Seems like exit polls are least accurate when GW runs |
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YankeeFan (217 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 06:45 AM Response to Original message |
11. As I Have a Part Time Job As A Poll Watcher... |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 07:03 AM Response to Reply #11 |
13. interesting |
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applegrove (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 10:01 AM Response to Reply #13 |
17. What about a plan for younger church member to drop of elders |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 10:53 AM Response to Reply #17 |
19. not exactly |
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applegrove (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 10:56 AM Response to Reply #19 |
20. I thought Miller said they were more accurate. You are right. I just |
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southwood (74 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 08:48 PM Response to Reply #11 |
23. The thing is, pollsters |
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applegrove (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jan-28-06 03:22 AM Response to Reply #23 |
24. And they have not been. And they are understandably sheepish |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jan-28-06 10:08 PM Response to Reply #23 |
37. you are almost making an important point |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 06:56 AM Response to Original message |
12. overhauls after 2000 |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jan-28-06 07:41 AM Response to Reply #12 |
26. But the vote count used in the projection was one of the main problems. |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jan-28-06 10:17 PM Response to Reply #26 |
38. different blown call, different problem |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jan-29-06 07:52 AM Response to Reply #38 |
41. Thanks for the link, I hadn't seen this report. |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jan-29-06 01:53 PM Response to Reply #41 |
42. fair points |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jan-29-06 02:19 PM Response to Reply #42 |
45. How far away is that parallel universe you mention? |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jan-29-06 05:40 PM Response to Reply #45 |
49. somewhere over the rainbow? |
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autorank (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Feb-02-06 02:40 AM Response to Reply #26 |
55. Careful, you're being too accurate! ;) n/t |
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truckin (500 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 09:07 AM Response to Original message |
15. Has any voting group like Verified Voting discussed hiring |
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applegrove (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 09:53 AM Response to Reply #15 |
16. I think the MSM were so burned by the Kerry early results in the exit |
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applegrove (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 10:04 AM Response to Reply #15 |
18. What about exit poll monitors. Why not? |
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liam_laddie (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-27-06 04:32 PM Response to Original message |
21. some older exit-poll history |
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organik (217 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jan-28-06 11:55 AM Response to Original message |
29. The real main basis for questioning the results is the grinning assface |
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autorank (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Feb-02-06 02:42 AM Response to Reply #29 |
56. Me and it's great to see your reality-based username and avatar! |
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kster (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Feb-02-06 02:55 AM Response to Reply #29 |
57. So long as there is SILENCE from honest Repugs and Dem's |
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