John Nichols: An Oscar and An Announcement? Don't Bet On it (The Nation)

[marmar]

BLOG | Posted 02/25/2007 @ 2:33pm
An Oscar and an Announcement? Don't Bet On It

John Nichols

Former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich was, arguably, the best member of Bill Clinton Cabinet, and he ran a credible campaign for governor of Massachusetts a few years back. But tonight's Academy Awards program is likely to prove that he's better at making predictions about show business than politics.

Reich argued in a recent web comment that, "The odds are better than 50-50 that Al Gore's 'Inconvenient Truth' will win an Oscar for best documentary at next Sunday's Academy Awards. The odds are better than one in three that, when accepting the Oscar, and while being watched by 29 million people, Gore will announce he is running for president in 2008."

Reich is half right. "An Inconvenient Truth" is clearly the frontrunner in the best documentary category.

In fact, if "An Inconvenient Truth" loses tonight, Gore might want to ask for the full recount that he would have been wise to demand in Florida back in November of 2000.

But, if Gore wins the Oscar, he will use his speech to make a smart, graceful comment about the need to address global warming. Conscious that he is in the spotlight, and more than willing to playfully stoke speculation about a possible bid for the 2008 Democratic nomination, he will use the moment to appear presidential -- rather than to launch a presidential bid. .....(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters?bid=45&pid=169355