Reply #20: That's right, if the models are anywhere close to accurate, we don't have 20 or 30 years

[OKIsItJustMe]

You know, it’s funny, the scientific community seems to feel they’re pretty accurate.

http://www.oar.noaa.gov/climate/t_modeling.html

Modeling Climate

What is climate and why do we model it?

Climate refers to the average of weather conditions. It varies on timescales ranging from seasonal to centennial. Fluctuations result naturally from interactions between the ocean, the atmosphere, the land, cryosphere (frozen portion of the Earth's surface), and changes in the Earth's energy balance resulting from volcanic eruptions and variations in the sun's intensity. Since the Industrial Revolution significant changes in radiative forcing (Earth's heat energy balance) have resulted from the build up of greenhouse gases and trace constituents. The impacts on the planet of these anthropogenically-induced or man-made changes to the energy budget have been detected and are projected to become increasingly more important during the next century.

Computer models of the coupled atmosphere-land surface-ocean-sea ice system are essential scientific tools for understanding and predicting natural and human-caused changes in Earth's climate.

How do we model climate?

Climate models are systems of differential equations derived from the basic laws of physics, fluid motion, and chemistry formulated to be solved on supercomputers. For the solution the planet is covered by a 3-dimensional grid
to which the basic equations are applied and evaluated. At each grid point, e.g. for the atmosphere, the motion of the air (winds), heat transfer (thermodynamics), radiation (solar and terrestrial), moisture content (relative humidity) and surface hydrology (precipitation, evaporation, snow melt and runoff) are calculated as well as the interactions of these processes among neighboring points. The computations are stepped forward in time from seasons to centuries depending on the study.

State-of-the-art climate models now include interactive representations of the ocean, the atmosphere, the land, hydrologic and cryospheric processes, terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles, and atmospheric chemistry.

The accuracy of climate models is limited by grid resolution and our ability to describe the complicated atmospheric, oceanic, and chemical processes mathematically. Much of the research in OAR is directed at improving the representation of these processes. Despite some imperfections, models simulate remarkably well current climate and its variability. More capable supercomputers enable significant model improvements by allowing for more accurate representation of currently unresolved physics.

…

So, how about we treat them as if they are accurate. What’s the downside if they aren’t? Perhaps warming won't be quite as abrupt as they suggest.

Maybe it will be easier to slow the warming than we anticipate! (Wouldn't that be a pleasant surprise?)