Why the odds still favour Rudy upsetting Hillary's bandwagon

[T_i_B]

Doom & Gloom from the UK Observer.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2185479,00.html

Leaving aside whether or not Clinton will win the Democratic nomination, the fact is that America is perfectly capable of voting Republican again. Far from looking ahead to a Clinton White House, be prepared for a Rudy Giuliani one.

After all, the Democrats have been here before. Repeatedly. In 2000, conventional wisdom had it that Al Gore would crush a Texas cowboy famous for little more than being his daddy's son. In 2004, how could John Kerry, a heroic Vietnam veteran, lose to that same cowboy who had just embroiled the country in a needless war. Conventional wisdom was deeply wrong both times.

Republicans have consistently shown themselves better at winning elections, even when everything points in a Democrat direction. Republicans are superb at exploiting conservative issues that resonate deeply with the American public. Democrats often flounder getting their message across. In the past 60 years, Democrats have won more than 50 per cent of the total popular vote in a presidential election only twice. Let me repeat that. Twice in 60 years. Even Bill Clinton - now regarded by many Democrats as the incarnation of a lost golden age - needed the third party candidacy of eccentric billionaire Ross Perot to assure him of his two victories. He never beat 50 per cent. In American elections the Republicans always have a good chance. It is unlikely that 2008 will be any different.

The crucial name is the one not on the ballot: George W Bush. Though no Republican candidate has decisively broken with Bush so far, it will be a powerful card to play once nominated. Giuliani, and his liberal social beliefs, could easily appeal to independent anti-Bush voters. So instead of Clinton wondering which red states she can pick off, she could find herself fighting off Giuliani in her own backyard of solid-blue states such as New Jersey.