Reply #5: I expect 75% of the GOP/indies to go for O, with H/O/E among Dem at 55/25/20

[papau]

that means of the 45% O gets 33+, add 25% of 55 is 13+ - so 47 is my guess.

Meanwhile while Hillary gets 2 to i over O amonst Dems that is only 30 - add 5% of 45 indies for 2 and my guess is 32

Edwards at 20% of 45 gets 9 from the indies, add 20% of the 55 dems gives him 9, so my guess is 20

I think Hillary is lock in to 32 with little upside - bur Edwards can take some points from O.

Interestly, E has rejected the obvious go after O path in order to join O in O's Hillary dump - I think Edwards doesn't break into double digits after this - and that is sad as he is the most liberal of the crowd.