Reply #46: You would after Webb's term is up...

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If you're not from here, you might not know how hard it is to get a Democrat elected to a statewide office.

Our current "luck" is in place - for a few reasons.

1. Mark Warner really is a transformative figure with great political skills. Similar to Bill Clinton in the 90s, Warner flat outmaneuvered the Republican congress here. His name is golden, but this is rare for Democrats in VA. Kaine won the governor's race almost solely on this guy's coat tails. He doesn't have enough heft on his own to carry VA as a VP. Warner does though.

2. The republican party here has done everything possible to self-destruct. Herb Schantz, the behind-the-scenes Republican kingmaker here in VA got sick and then passed aways a few years back (Herb wrote the majority of the Clinger-Cohen act in the 90s, and was on Bush's transition team in 2000 - a hugely respected figure here among conservative party members). Nobody with a brain has replaced him. Since then, the right wing looney part of the party has taken over. This is why Warner is gauranteed to win a Senate seat - idiot right-wing Jim "I support the unfunded Car-tax repeal" Gilmore, the former Republican governor got the republicans to agree to forgoe the normal primary system for the upcoming Senate race, which would have favored the more moderate Tom Davis (my congressman, incidentally). Gilmore will get trounced by Warner, whereas Davis would have had a very legitimate shot, even with Warner's cred.

3. The ONLY reason Webb won was the Makaka comment - that's it. Literally. Prior to then it was a blow-out. The democratic party wouldn't give Webb a dime - neither did anyone else. He was our version of Dennis Kucinich - an interesting gadfly with no chance of winning. Even after he got massive support, the race still came down to less than a few thousand votes or so. NOBODY else on the democratic side other than Warner has a chance on the Senate side if another seat came up.

So if we put Webb on the ticket, we almost certainly lose his seat when its time comes up - its that simple. Worse, Webb hurts Obama with the Women vote big time. He will not get selected for Obama - possibly for Hillary though - this might even be a good choice for her.

Bottom line, yes, Northern VA has put the state in play on the national level, but its NOT an even toss-up. Republicans still hold a STRONG edge. Democrats have to be massively Blue Dog and in favor of the military to have a chance. Mark Warner is what makes non-locals see the state as a toss-up. It's not. He's just spectacular.