Reply #15: She'd still need to win those four by astounding amounts.

[Pab Sungenis]

If she wins them 60%-40%, she'd only come out 88 delegates ahead, not enough to erase the gap. She'd need to win 70%-30% to erase a 150 delegate lead if Obama built that one up. Has she won any of the big states head-to-head by that kind of margin?

More likely is that she'll win those four by a ten point margin, which would give her 244 delegates and Obama 200 out of that day's race, leaving her probably 6 delegates behind Obama. If she loses either Texas or Ohio, or both Vermont and Rhode Island, I doubt she'll have the momentum to make it to Pennsylvania.


Hillary's only hope right now is to sweep the March 4th primaries by 60% or greater, then win Pennsylvania by a convincing margin. Otherwise, she won't be able to make it.