You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #1: I participated in this IVR Texas poll last night: [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
Ilsa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 11:52 AM
Response to Original message
1. I participated in this IVR Texas poll last night:
http://ivrpolls.com/index.php

Turnout in Texas is extremely high and includes a high percentage of first time primary voters. For this reason, I decided to begin with a sample population from all registered voters and screen responses to determine likely voters. Initial questions dealt with general election matchups and presidential choice in 2004. The resuts of the 2004 question matched election results fairly closely, so I believe it to be a fairly representative sample. In the general election matchups, Republicans win all matchups easily though not at Bush-like margins. Obama does slightly better than Clinton against Huckabee while Clinton does much better than Obama against McCain. Clinton had almost the same percentage against each Republican, while Obama's percentages varied.

Unfortunately, the screening questions produced too few primary voters to be as precise as I would like for the tight Democratic primary race. The five point margin of error is higher than the difference between the two candidates in many recent polls, and I will need to increase the sample size before I am comfortable releasing detailed percentages. That said, after weighting to expected demographics, Obama received the support of one more respondent than Clinton did.

Obama increased his numbers among African-Americans and Latinos. In previous polls, women over 60 was the only African-American segment where Clinton was competitive. Obama is now dominating that group as well. Younger Latinos are now going for Obama as heavily as younger voters overall.

Clinton improved among white voters and Bush voters. She was stable among white Kerry voters, but there has been an increase in younger white Bush voters who will vote GOP in November, but vote for Clinton in the primary. Obama still has a significant number of older white Bush voters crossing over temporarily, but the effect is mostly offset now.
SNIP

There is a little more in the article.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC