Reply #58: No you don't

[alcibiades_mystery]

Because the "traditional blue states" don't operate the same way in the primaries as in the general. So the direct comparison gives you no indication whatsoever of how the nominee would perform in the general in those states. Does the fact that Obama blew Hillary out of the water in Illinois tell you anything about Hillary's "potential to carry" Illinois? Of course not. That's absurd. Illinois will go strongly Democratic either way. The information value of the primary wins is at best marginal in current and potential swing states (Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico, Florida) and even that's being optimistic about the predictive value of any of this. In traditional blue states, it means next to nothing, which is why the OP has limped away from that comparison to invent some other rationale for his argument.