Reply #3: Except that

[terrell9584]

She is going to win by substantial margins in Kentucky, and Kentucky is a state where local politics is controlled at the Democratic level (or read as, if you don't vote as a Democrat, in many counties, you forfeit a sheriff's vote)

Count that for West Virginia too. Short of an endorsement from Robert Byrd, Obama will just get rocked there. It may not be enough votes to overcome the current deficit, but the margins in those two states are going to be fairly lopsided against Obama, and these are primaries.

It is theoretically possible for Clinton to get above 70% in both states, and that is astounding. We know that WV goes Clinton in a general and we know that Kentucky is at least in play, meaning there is a real following there. Of course, in theory Obama should do well in North Carolina, and that theory involves him running up the vote in black areas and the Triangle. If his vote in the Triangle is not as strong as expected then his margin might be cut. I don't see North Carolina providing a large enough margin to negate Kentucky and West Virginia, where people are pissed and will vote.

I agree that she needs to do well in PA, but I do think there are variables that we don't know about. It's a long way from being over