Reply #118: Hillary has the surer route but Obama can win

[Awsi Dooger]

At 4:45 AM that's about as simple as I can make it.

The statewide numbers were destined to tighten, and they'll tighten some more. That's the problem with sites like fivethirtyeight, or whatever it is. I've seen it linked recently but when you rely on statewide polls in general election terms you start with a fundamental flaw.

It's an extreme swerve from primaries where state polling is more relevant than national polling, to the fall where opposite is true and you have to be eager to let go of one and lasso the other. The states will naturally fall in line with their typical tendencies, in relation to the national margin.

And there's no way two Democrats will fare dramatically different from the same Republican. I've seen state polling with 10-15 point gaps between Obama's fortunes and Hillary's fortunes. That's pure Monty Python. It will be a handful of points at most, in certain states.

Unfortunately for our side, given where we are, Hillary has more margin for error than Obama in the critical states. At 50/50 nationally Hillary wins the electoral college more often than Obama does. But Obama can potentially offset that via superior national relationship to McCain. That's the wild card, which Democrat fares best in election eve national polling vs. McCain?