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Reply #21: Here's my take on the numbers [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
housewolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 06:14 PM
Response to Original message
21. Here's my take on the numbers
If they give both FL & MI 1/2 of their pledged delegate counts (no super-delegates) and apportion the delegates according to the actual vote percentages:

Obama will need 101 delegates and Clinton will need 240 (out of 341) to win the majority.

In that scenario, the total delegates needed will be 4233; a majority would be 2117. Obama currently has 1976, he picks up half of what he won in FL (37) and half of what he won in MI (3) (apparantly there were some write-in votes that gave hin a few delegates) giving him 2016, so he would need 101 to win the majority.

Hillary currently has 1776, she would pick up half of what she won in FL (57) and half of what she won in MI (40) giving her 1876, so she would need 240.

The available delegates that make up the pool to fill the "needed counts" encompass the pledged and unpledged delegates from the final 3 elections, the uncommitted pledged delegates (including the ones from MI), the 7 remaining Edwards delegates and the remaining super-delegates (except FL & MI which wouldn't get any in this scenario).

This is just one scenario and there are other scenarios out there but I think this one has a good chance of being adopted. We'll see.


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