Reply #18: Some more tidbits of Market Predictions:

[Douglas Carpenter]

Some more tidbits

Intrade Prediction Market

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 95.0% to 96.7% chance that Sen. Clinton will win the Puerto Rico Democratic Primary on June 1, 2008

Intrade Prediction Market gives Sen. Obama a 91.1% to 98% chance of winning the Montana Democratic Primary on June 3, 2008

Intrade Prediction Market gives Sen. Obama a 93.1% to 98.0% chance of winning the South Dakota Primary on June 3, 2008

Intrade Prediction Market gives Sen. Obama a 89.6% to 93.8% chance to receive the most Democratic Super-delegates in 2008

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 73.3% to 77.9% chance that Sen. Clinton will drop out of the race on or before 30 June 2008

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 80.1% to 92.5% chance that Sen. Clinton will drop out of the race on or before 31 July 2008

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The Vice Presidential market trading on Rasmussen Markets are interesting. From what I have seen - it's almost exactly the same on Intrade:

links:

http://markets.rasmussenreports.com

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

BAYH 3.1% to 3.2%

CLARK 5.1% TO 5.5%

RICHARDSON 6.9% to 7.9%

GORE 5.3% to 5.4%

WEB 20.2% to 20.8%

STRICKLAND 3.4% to 3.7%

CLINTON 16.7% to 17.2%

EDWARDS 6.7% to 6.8%

BIDEN 4.4% to 4.9%

NUN 5.1% to 5.7%

DASCHLE 1.6% to 2.4%

DODD 1.2% to 1.5%

KERRY 0.5% to 0.9%

link: http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/