Reply #11: He has a tough primary challenge ahead, alright.

[burning rain]

Pat Toomey, who challenged Specter in the 04 primary, recently announced that he's going to make another run for it. Toomey, who lost to Specter in the 04 by just 1.6%, is an ultraconservative across the board. This time, however, Specter won't have Bush and Santorum campaigning for him, plus a number of the more moderate to liberal Republicans switched party registration in 08 (the Democratic presidential primary was a real contest here), so that the conservative proportion of GOP primary voters has increased. Specter appears to hold out some hope of getting former Republicans to return to the party so as to support him, but that seems pretty fanciful -- he's a steady worker for Pennsylvania, but c'mon, Mr. Charisma he ain't. I'd say Specter's toast in the Republican primary, but as a Democrat he'd easily beat Toomey in the general. Rendell's been trying to convince him to switch; we'll see where it goes.